Related papers: Efficient mitigation strategies for epidemics in r…
A probabilistic approach to the epidemic evolution on realistic social-contact networks allows for characteristic differences among subjects, including the individual number and structure of social contacts, and the heterogeneity of the…
Contact tracing has been extensively studied from different perspectives in recent years. However, there is no clear indication of why this intervention has proven effective in some epidemics (SARS) and mostly ineffective in some others…
Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models have been used for decades to understand epidemic outbreak dynamics. We develop an SIR model specifically designed to study the effects of population behavior with respect to health and…
Empirical data on contacts between individuals in social contexts play an important role in providing information for models describing human behavior and how epidemics spread in populations. Here, we analyze data on face-to-face contacts…
Recent Covid-19 pandemic has demonstrated the need of efficient epidemic outbreak management. We study the optimal control problem of minimizing the fraction of infected population by applying vaccination and treatment control strategies,…
We analyze an optimal control version of a simple SIRS epidemiology model. The policy maker can adopt policies to diminish the contact rate between infected and susceptible individuals, at a specific economic cost. The arrival of a vaccine…
We study the effects of switching social contacts as a strategy to control epidemic outbreaks. Connections between susceptible and infective individuals can be broken by either individual, and then reconnected to a randomly chosen member of…
When a fraction of a population becomes immune to an infectious disease, the population-wide infection risk decreases nonlinearly due to collective protection, known as herd immunity. Some studies based on mean-field models suggest that…
Mathematical models represent one of the fundamental ways of studying nature. In special, epidemic models have shown to be particularly useful in the understanding of the course of diseases and in the planning effective control policies. A…
In the context of the recent COVID-19 outbreak, quarantine has been used to "flatten the curve" and slow the spread of the disease. In this paper, we show that this is not the only benefit of quarantine for the mitigation of an SIR epidemic…
The impact of mitigation or control measures on an epidemics can be estimated by fitting the parameters of a compartmental model to empirical data, and running the model forward with modified parameters that account for a specific measure.…
Preventing infectious disease like flu from spreading to large communities is one of the most important issues for humans. One effective strategy is voluntary vaccination, however, there is always the temptation for people refusing to be…
This paper presents a simple continuous-time linear vaccination-based control strategy for a SEIR (susceptible plus infected plus infectious plus removed populations) propagation disease model. The model takes into account the total…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
We study vaccine control for disease spread on an adaptive network modeling disease avoidance behavior. Control is implemented by adding Poisson distributed vaccination of susceptibles. We show that vaccine control is much more effective in…
The threat of avian influenza and the 2004-2005 influenza vaccine supply shortage in the United States has sparked a debate about optimal vaccination strategies to reduce the burden of morbidity and mortality caused by the influenza virus.…
To control infection spreading on networks, we investigate the effect of observer nodes that recognize infection in a neighboring node and make the rest of the neighbor nodes immune. We numerically show that random placement of observer…
The spreading of epidemics is very much determined by the structure of the contact network, which may be impacted by the mobility dynamics of the individuals themselves. In confined scenarios where a small, closed population spends most of…
Synthetic contact networks are useful for modeling epidemic spread and social transmission, but data to infer realistic contact patterns that take account of assortative connections at the geographic and economic levels is limited. We…
When an unprecedented infectious disease with high mortality and transmissibility emerges, immediate usage of vaccines or medicines is hardly available. Thus, many health authorities rely on non-pharmaceutical interventions through…