Related papers: Spatiotemporal correlations of aftershock sequence…
Point processes have been dominant in modeling the evolution of seismicity for decades, with the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model being most popular. Recent advances in machine learning have constructed highly flexible point…
After the main shock of an earthquake, a stream of aftershocks that does not subside for a long time is usually observed. Fusakichi Omori found that the frequency of aftershocks decreases hyperbolically with time. It has recently been…
We investigate the sequence of great earthquakes over the past century. To examine whether the earthquake record includes temporal clustering, we identify aftershocks and remove those from the record. We focus on the recurrence time,…
A novel geomechanics concept is presented for studying the behavior of geomaterials and structures by capturing the underlying dynamics as realistically as possible for earthquake excitation applied in time domain. Enormous amount of…
Spatiotemporal correlations of the two-dimensional spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff) model of earthquakes are extensively studied by means of numerical computer simulations. The model is found to exhibit either ``subcritical'' or…
It has been observed that the earthquake events possess short-term memory, i.e. that events occurring in a particular location are dependent on the short history of that location. We conduct an analysis to see whether real-time earthquake…
The emergence of a power-law distribution for the energy released during an earthquake is investigated in several models. Generic features are identified which are based on the self-affine behavior of the stress field prior to an event.…
Time series are characterized by complex memory and/or distribution patterns. In this letter we show that models obeying to different statistics may equally reproduce some pattern of a time series. In particular we discuss the difference…
Spatiotemporal properties of seismicity are investigated for a worldwide (WW) catalog and for Southern California in the stationary case (SC), showing a nearly universal scaling behavior. Distributions of distances between consecutive…
Using the simple ETAS branching model of seismicity, which assumes that each earthquake can trigger other earthquakes, we quantify the role played by the cascade of triggered seismicity in controlling the rate of aftershock decay as well as…
The Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to model seismic sequences and underpins Operational Earthquake Forecasting (OEF). However, it remains challenging to assess the reliability of inverted ETAS parameters for a…
The Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model and its variants effectively capture the space-time clustering of seismicity, setting the standard for earthquake forecasting. Accurate unbiased ETAS calibration is thus crucial. But we…
Performing Bayesian inference for the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model of earthquakes typically requires MCMC sampling using the likelihood function or estimating the latent branching structure. These tasks have computational…
The decay pattern of aftershocks in the so-called 'coherent-noise' models [M. E. J. Newman and K. Sneppen, Phys. Rev. E54, 6226 (1996)] is studied in detail. Analytical and numerical results show that the probability to find a large event…
Using the standard ETAS model of triggered seismicity, we present a rigorous theoretical analysis of the main statistical properties of temporal clusters, defined as the group of events triggered by a given main shock of fixed magnitude m…
Static and dynamic stress changes in the Earth's crust induced by an earthquake typically trigger other earthquakes. Identifying such aftershocks is an important step in seismic hazard assessment but has remained challenging, especially in…
We show that the distribution of waiting times between earthquakes occurring in California obeys a simple unified scaling law valid from tens of seconds to tens of years, see Eq. (1) and Fig. 4. The short time clustering, commonly referred…
The presented paper is devoted to the search for mathematical basis for describing the aftershock evolution of strong earthquakes. We consider the experimental facts and heuristic arguments that allow to make a choice and to focus on the…
The observation of foreshocks preceding large earthquakes and the suggestion that foreshocks have specific properties that may be used to distinguish them from other earthquakes have raised the hope that large earthquakes may be…
We find the static displacement, stress, strain and the modified Columb failure stress produced in an elastic medium by a finite size rectangular fault after its dislocation with uniform stress drop but a non uniform dislocation on the…