Related papers: Spatiotemporal correlations of aftershock sequence…
The decay rate of aftershocks is commonly very well described by the modified Omori law, $n(t) \propto t^{-p}$, where n(t) is the number of aftershocks per unit time, t is the time after the main shock, and p is a constant in the range…
Earthquakes are one of the most devastating natural disasters that plague society. A skilled, reliable earthquake forecasting remains the ultimate goal for seismologists. Using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and conditional…
Sequences of aftershocks following Omori's empirical law are observed after most major earthquakes, as well as in laboratory-scale fault-mimicking experiments. Nevertheless, the origin of this memory effect is still unclear. In this letter,…
Aftershocks of aftershocks - and their aftershock cascades - substantially contribute to the increased seismicity rate and the associated elevated seismic hazard after the occurrence of a large earthquake. Current state-of-the-art…
Hawkes process is one of the most commonly used models for investigating the self-exciting nature of earthquake occurrences. However, seismicity patterns have complicated characteristics due to heterogeneous geology and stresses, for which…
We present two models for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes in California, to be tested in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). The first, time-independent model, modified from Helmstetter et…
The Himalayan region, including Nepal, is prone to frequent and large earthquakes. Accurate forecasting of these earthquakes is crucial for minimizing loss of life and damage to infrastructure. In this study, we propose various time-scaled…
Spatiotemporal clustering of earthquake events is a generally-established fact, and is important for designing models and assessment techniques in seismicity. Here, we investigate how this behavior can manifest in the statistical…
We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to distinguish between relevant causally connected earthquakes. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski (2004). A network of…
The spatio-temporal Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model is widely used to describe the self-exciting nature of earthquake occurrences. While traditional inference methods provide only point estimates of the model parameters, we…
Scaling analysis reveals striking regularities in earthquake occurrence. The time between any one earthquake and that following it is random, but it is described by the same universal-probability distribution for any spatial region and…
After a large earthquake, the likelihood of successive strong aftershocks needs to be estimated. Exploiting similarities with critical phenomena, we introduce a scaling law for the decay in time following a main shock of the expected number…
Several recent works point out that the crowd of small unobservable earthquakes (with magnitudes below the detection threshold $m_d$) may play a significant and perhaps dominant role in triggering future seismicity. Using the ETAS branching…
In many important systems exhibiting crackling noise --- intermittent avalanche-like relaxation response with power-law and, thus, self-similar distributed event sizes --- the "laws" for the rate of activity after large events are not…
Spatio-temporal correlations of earthquakes are studied numerically on the basis of the one-dimensional spring-block (Burridge-Knopoff) model. As large events approach, the frequency of smaller events gradually increases, while, just before…
Over the past decades much effort has been devoted towards understanding and forecasting natural hazards. However, earthquake forecasting skill is still very limited and remains a great scientific challenge. The limited earthquake…
The occurrence of aftershocks following a major financial crash manifests the critical dynamical response of financial markets. Aftershocks put additional stress on markets, with conceivable dramatic consequences. Such a phenomenon has been…
Many point process models have been proposed for describing and forecasting earthquake occurrences in seismically active zones such as California, but the problem of how best to compare and evaluate the goodness of fit of such models…
We propose a new physically-based ``multifractal stress activation'' model of earthquake interaction and triggering based on two simple ingredients: (i) a seismic rupture results from activated processes giving an exponential dependence on…
Earthquakes in seismological catalogs and acoustic emission events in lab experiments can be statistically described as a linear Hawkes point process, where the spatio-temporal rate of events is a linear superposition of background…