Related papers: Universality in DAX index returns fluctuations
Random-matrix theory is used to study the mesoscopic fluctuations of the excitation gap in a metal grain or quantum dot induced by the proximity to a superconductor. We propose that the probability distribution of the gap is a universal…
The fluctuations in the quantum spectrum could be treated like a time series. In this framework, we explore the statistical self-similarity in the quantum spectrum using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and random matrix theory…
The asymptotic distribution of the Markowitz portfolio is derived, for the general case (assuming fourth moments of returns exist), and for the case of multivariate normal returns. The derivation allows for inference which is robust to…
A simple, intuitive approach to the assessment of probabilistic inferences is introduced. The Shannon information metrics are translated to the probability domain. The translation shows that the negative logarithmic score and the geometric…
Recently it has been shown that the $\alpha$-Sun density $h(x)$ [{\it J. Math. Anal. Appl.}, {\bf 527} (2023), p. 127371] which interpolates between the Fr{\'e}chet density and that of the positive, stable distributions whose density is…
By optimal fluctuation method, we study short-time distribution $P(\mathcal{A}=A)$ of the functionals, $\mathcal{A}=\int_{0}^{t_f} x^n(t) dt$, along constrained trajectories of random acceleration process for a given time duration $t_f$,…
We investigate the large-volatility dynamics in financial markets, based on the minute-to-minute and daily data of the Chinese Indices and German DAX. The dynamic relaxation both before and after large volatilities is characterized by a…
Posterior tempering reduces the influence of the likelihood in the calculation of the posterior by raising the likelihood to a fractional power $\alpha$. The resulting power posterior - also known as an $\alpha$-posterior or fractional…
We consider determinantal point processes on a compact complex manifold X in the limit of many particles. The correlation kernels of the processes are the Bergman kernels associated to a a high power of a given Hermitian holomorphic line…
The evolution of the probability distributions of Japan and US major market indices, NIKKEI 225 and NASDAQ composite index, and $JPY/DEM$ and $DEM/USD$ currency exchange rates is described by means of the Fokker-Planck equation (FPE). In…
We find that in generic field theories the combined effect of fluctuations and interactions leads to a probability distribution function which describes fractional Brownian Motion (fBM) and ``complex behavior''. To show this we use the…
It has been shown by Strahov and Fyodorov that averages of products and ratios of characteristic polynomials corresponding to Hermitian matrices of a unitary ensemble, involve kernels related to orthogonal polynomials and their Cauchy…
Model uncertainty is a type of inevitable financial risk. Mistakes on the choice of pricing model may cause great financial losses. In this paper we investigate financial markets with mean-volatility uncertainty. Models for stock markets…
Using COBE-DMR 4-year data, we find a general expression yielding the likelihood distribution in the 3-dimensional parameter space spanned by the spectral index $n$, the spectral amplitude $a_{10}$ and the false-vacuum density parameter…
Eternally inflating universes can contain thermalized regions with different values of the cosmological parameters. In particular, the spectra of density fluctuations should be different, because of the different realizations of quantum…
Stylized facts of empirical assets log-returns $Z$ include the existence of (semi) heavy tailed distributions $f_Z(z)$ and a non-linear spectrum of Hurst exponents $\tau(\beta)$. Empirical data considered are daily prices of 10 large…
Intra-day price spreads are of interest to electricity traders, storage and electric vehicle operators. This paper formulates dynamic density functions, based upon skewed-t and similar representations, to model and forecast the German…
We discuss several approaches to defining power in studies designed around the Benjamini-Hochberg (BH) false discovery rate (FDR) procedure. We focus primarily on the \textit{average power} and the $\lambda$-\textit{power}, which are the…
In an earlier study, we showed that Tsallis relative entropy (TRE), which is the generalization of Kullback-Leibler relative entropy (KLRE) to non-extensive systems, can be used as a possible risk measure in constructing risk optimal…
The probability P(alpha, N) that search algorithms for random Satisfiability problems successfully find a solution is studied as a function of the ratio alpha of constraints per variable and the number N of variables. P is shown to be…