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We propose a notion of autoreducibility for infinite time computability and explore it and its connection with a notion of randomness for infinite time machines.

Logic · Mathematics 2014-02-06 Merlin Carl

We present a general framework for portfolio risk management in discrete time, based on a replicating martingale. This martingale is learned from a finite sample in a supervised setting. The model learns the features necessary for an…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2022-05-09 Lucio Fernandez-Arjona , Damir Filipović

We show that in the setting of fair-coin measure on the power set of the natural numbers, each sufficiently random set has an infinite subset that computes no random set. That is, there is an almost sure event $\mathcal A$ such that if…

Logic · Mathematics 2014-08-12 Bjørn Kjos-Hanssen

Cardinality potentials are a generally useful class of high order potential that affect probabilities based on how many of D binary variables are active. Maximum a posteriori (MAP) inference for cardinality potential models is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-10-19 Daniel Tarlow , Kevin Swersky , Richard S. Zemel , Ryan Prescott Adams , Brendan J. Frey

Experimentation involves risk. The investigator expends time and money in the pursuit of data that supports a hypothesis. In the end, the investigator may find that all of these costs were for naught and the data fail to reject the null.…

Risk Management · Quantitative Finance 2024-06-25 Thomas Cook , Patrick Flaherty

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-10-14 Pieter Collins

Randomness is a central concept to statistics and physics. Here, a statistical analysis shows experimental evidence that tossing coins and finding last digits of prime numbers are identical regarding statistics for equally likely outcomes.…

Applications · Statistics 2019-10-29 Yeseul Kim , Byung Mook Weon

Classical probability theory is formulated using sets. In this paper, we extend classical probability theory with propositional computability logic. Unlike other formalisms, computability logic is built on the notion of events/games, which…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-06-23 Keehang Kwon

The aim of this short note is to draw attention to a method by which the partition function and marginal probabilities for a certain class of random fields on complete graphs can be computed in polynomial time. This class includes Ising…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-06-19 Boris Flach

A stationary random sequence admits under some assumptions a representation as the sum of two others: one of them is a martingale difference sequence, and another is a so-called coboundary. Such a representation can be used for proving some…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-12-24 Mikhail Gordin

This paper examines the foundational concept of random variables in probability theory and statistical inference, demonstrating that their mathematical definition requires no reference to randomization or hypothetical repeated sampling. We…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2025-02-11 Paul W. Vos

We introduce scalable algorithms for online learning of neural network parameters and Bayesian sequential decision making. Unlike classical Bayesian neural networks, which induce predictive uncertainty through a posterior over model…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Gerardo Duran-Martin , Leandro Sánchez-Betancourt , Álvaro Cartea , Kevin Murphy

We prove that every computably enumerable (c.e.) random real is provable in Peano Arithmetic (PA) to be c.e. random. A major step in the proof is to show that the theorem stating that "a real is c.e. and random iff it is the halting…

Computational Complexity · Computer Science 2009-06-08 Cristian S. Calude , Nicholas J. Hay

A plausible definition of "reasoning" could be "algebraically manipulating previously acquired knowledge in order to answer a new question". This definition covers first-order logical inference or probabilistic inference. It also includes…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-02-14 Leon Bottou

Turing's famous 'machine' framework provides an intuitively clear conception of 'computing with real numbers'. A recursive counterexample to a theorem shows that the theorem does not hold when restricted to computable objects. These…

Logic · Mathematics 2020-06-23 Sam Sanders

We prove various results on effective numberings and Friedberg numberings of families related to algorithmic randomness. The family of all Martin-L\"of random left-computably enumerable reals has a Friedberg numbering, as does the family of…

Logic · Mathematics 2014-08-12 Katie Brodhead , Bjørn Kjos-Hanssen

We motivate and study an infinite sequence of binary operations on the ordinal numbers, extending the standard arithmetic on the ordinals to higher degrees of iteration. Connections to the hyperoperations on the natural numbers are…

Logic · Mathematics 2025-08-26 Adrian Ducourtial

A physical system is determined by a finite set of initial conditions and "laws" represented by equations. The system is computable if we can solve the equations in all instances using a "finite body of mathematical knowledge". In this…

The density hypothesis on random times becomes now a standard in modeling of risks. One of the basic reasons to introduce the density hypothesis is the desire to have a computable credit risk model. However, recent work shows that merely an…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-02-04 Shiqi Song

Computation plays a major role in decision making. Even if an agent is willing to ascribe a probability to all states and a utility to all outcomes, and maximize expected utility, doing so might present serious computational problems.…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2011-06-15 Joseph Y. Halpern , Rafael Pass