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Machine learning models are essential tools in various domains, but their performance can degrade over time due to changes in data distribution or other factors. On one hand, detecting and addressing such degradations is crucial for…
This paper studies the unsupervised change point detection problem in time series of networks using the Separable Temporal Exponential-family Random Graph Model (STERGM). Inherently, dynamic network patterns are complex due to dyadic and…
We consider the problem of efficient financial surveillance aimed at "on-the-go" detection of structural breaks (anomalies) in "live"-monitored financial time series. With the problem approached statistically, viz. as that of multi-cyclic…
Responding appropriately to the detections of a sequential change detector requires knowledge of the rate at which false positives occur in the absence of change. Setting detection thresholds to achieve a desired false positive rate is…
A common approach to detect multiple changepoints is to minimise a measure of data fit plus a penalty that is linear in the number of changepoints. This paper shows that the general finite sample behaviour of such a method can be related to…
A class of tests for change-point detection designed to be particularly sensitive to changes in the cross-sectional rank correlation of multivariate time series is proposed. The derived procedures are based on several multivariate…
We study sequential change-point detection for spatio-temporal point processes, where actionable detection requires not only identifying when a distributional change occurs but also localizing where it manifests in space. While classical…
Motivated by an increasing demand for models that can effectively describe features of complex multivariate time series, e.g. from sensor data in biomechanics, motion analysis, and sports science, we introduce a novel state-space modeling…
We study the problem of online network change point detection. In this setting, a collection of independent Bernoulli networks is collected sequentially, and the underlying distributions change when a change point occurs. The goal is to…
This article studies the problem of online non-parametric change point detection in multivariate data streams. We approach the problem through the lens of kernel-based two-sample testing and introduce a sequential testing procedure based on…
Consider the detection of a sparse change in high-dimensional time-series. We introduce Sparsity Likelihood-based (SL-based) score and the change-points detection procedure in multivariate normal model with general covariance structure.…
There is an increasing need for algorithms that can accurately detect changepoints in long time-series, or equivalent, data. Many common approaches to detecting changepoints, for example based on penalised likelihood or minimum description…
Assuming stationarity is unrealistic in many time series applications. A more realistic alternative is to allow for piecewise stationarity, where the model is allowed to change at given time points. We propose a three-stage procedure for…
In many change point problems it is reasonable to assume that compared to a benchmark at a given time point $t_0$ the properties of the observed stochastic process change gradually over time for $t >t_0$. Often, these gradual changes are…
Anomaly detection on multivariate time-series is of great importance in both data mining research and industrial applications. Recent approaches have achieved significant progress in this topic, but there is remaining limitations. One major…
Offline change point detection retrospectively locates change points in a time series. Many nonparametric methods that target i.i.d. mean and variance changes fail in the presence of nonlinear temporal dependence, and model based methods…
High-dimensional time series are characterized by a large number of measurements and complex dependence, and often involve abrupt change points. We propose a new procedure to detect change points in the mean of high-dimensional time series…
We consider the multiple breakpoint detection problem, which is concerned with detecting the locations of several distinct changes in a one-dimensional noisy data series. We propose the breakpointError, a function that can be used to…
Change point analysis has applications in a wide variety of fields. The general problem concerns the inference of a change in distribution for a set of time-ordered observations. Sequential detection is an online version in which new data…
We propose the first comprehensive treatment of high-dimensional time series factor models with multiple change-points in their second-order structure. We operate under the most flexible definition of piecewise stationarity, and estimate…