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We study the upper tail of the number of arithmetic progressions of a given length in a random subset of {1,...,n}, establishing exponential bounds which are best possible up to constant factors in the exponent. The proof also extends to…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2017-12-12 Lutz Warnke

Suppose that $X$ is a bounded-degree polynomial with nonnegative coefficients on the $p$-biased discrete hypercube. Our main result gives sharp estimates on the logarithmic upper tail probability of $X$ whenever an associated extremal…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-04-14 Matan Harel , Frank Mousset , Wojciech Samotij

We present a general technique for computing large deviations of nonlinear functions of independent Bernoulli random variables. The method is applied to compute the large deviation rate functions for subgraph counts in sparse random graphs.…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-02 Sourav Chatterjee , Amir Dembo

In this article for a finite typed random geometric graph we define the empirical locality distribution, which records the number of nodes of a given type linked to a given number of nodes of each type. We find large deviation principle…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-01-29 Kwabena Doku-Amponsah

In this paper, we obtain a precise estimate of the probability that the sparse binomial random graph contains a large number of vertices in a triangle. The estimate of log of this probability is correct up to second order, and enables us to…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-21 Suman Chakraborty , Remco van der Hofstad , Frank den Hollander

This article gives an overview of the emerging literature on large deviations for random graphs. Written for the general mathematical audience, the article begins with a short introduction to the theory of large deviations. This is followed…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-29 Sourav Chatterjee

We study large deviation probabilities for a sum of dependent random variables from a heavy-tailed factor model, assuming that the components are regularly varying. We identify conditions where both the factor and the idiosyncratic terms…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-12-05 Boualem Djehiche , Jens Svensson

We give a simple, computationally efficient, and node-differentially-private algorithm for estimating the parameter of an Erdos-Renyi graph---that is, estimating p in a G(n,p)---with near-optimal accuracy. Our algorithm nearly matches the…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2019-05-28 Adam Sealfon , Jonathan Ullman

Loynes' distribution, which characterizes the one dimensional marginal of the stationary solution to Lindley's recursion, possesses an ultimately exponential tail for a large class of increment processes. If one can observe increments but…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-19 Ken R. Duffy , Sean P. Meyn

In dense Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graphs, we are interested in the events where large numbers of a given subgraph occur. The mean behavior of subgraph counts is known, and only recently were the related large deviations results discovered.…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-03 Shankar Bhamidi , Jan Hannig , Chia Ying Lee , James Nolen

Consider the complete graph on \(n\) vertices where each edge is independently open with probability \(p,\) or closed otherwise. Phase transitions for such graphs for \(p = \frac{C}{n}\) have previously been studied using techniques like…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-09-10 Ghurumuruhan Ganesan

The number of triangles in a graph is useful to deduce a plethora of important features of the network that the graph is modeling. However, finding the exact value of this number is computationally expensive. Hence, a number of…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2017-10-30 Duru Türkoğlu , Ata Turk

Consider the upper tail probability that the homomorphism count of a fixed graph $H$ within a large sparse random graph $G_n$ exceeds its expected value by a fixed factor $1+\delta$. Going beyond the Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi model, we establish…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-02-01 Sohom Bhattacharya , Amir Dembo

Distributions of the size of the largest component, in particular the large-deviation tail, are studied numerically for two graph ensembles, for Erdoes-Renyi random graphs with finite connectivity and for two-dimensional bond percolation.…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2015-05-20 A. K. Hartmann

Building on the techniques from the breakthrough paper of Harel, Mousset and Samotij, which solved the upper tail problem for cliques, we compute the asymptotics of the upper tail for the number of induced copies of the 4-cycle in the…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2022-01-11 Asaf Cohen Antonir

Triangle counting is a fundamental problem in the analysis of large graphs. There is a rich body of work on this problem, in varying streaming and distributed models, yet all these algorithms require reading the whole input graph. In many…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2020-06-23 Suman K. Bera , C. Seshadhri

Large deviation inequalities for ergodic sums is an important subject since the seminal contribution of Bernstein for independent random variables with finite variances, followed by the Chernoff method and the Hoefding result for…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-12 Miguel Abadi

With $\xi$ the number of triangles in the usual (Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi) random graph $G(m,p)$, $p>1/m$ and $\eta>0$, we show (for some $C_{\eta}>0$) $$\Pr(\xi> (1+\eta)\E \xi) < \exp[-C_{\eta}\min{m^2p^2\log(1/p),m^3p^3}].$$ This is tight up to…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-11-30 Bobby DeMarco , Jeff Kahn

For a $\Delta$-regular connected graph ${\sf H}$ the problem of determining the upper tail large deviation for the number of copies of ${\sf H}$ in $\mathbb{G}(n,p)$, an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi graph on $n$ vertices with edge probability $p$,…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-04-08 Anirban Basak , Riddhipratim Basu

What is the probability that the number of triangles in $\mathcal{G}_{n,p}$, the Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi random graph with edge density $p$, is at least twice its mean? Writing it as $\exp[- r(n,p)]$, already the order of the rate function…

Combinatorics · Mathematics 2019-04-12 Eyal Lubetzky , Yufei Zhao