Related papers: Modeling share prices of banks and bankrupts
The aim of this study is to investigate quantitatively whether share prices deviated from company fundamentals in the stock market crash of 2008. For this purpose, we use a large database containing the balance sheets and share prices of…
Financial economic models often assume that investors know (or agree on) the fundamental value of the shares of the firm, easing the passage from the individual to the collective dimension of the financial system generated by the Share…
The value of stocks, indices and other assets, are examples of stochastic processes with unpredictable dynamics. In this paper, we discuss asymmetries in short term price movements that can not be associated with a long term positive trend.…
We test for the long-run relationship between stock prices, inflation and its uncertainty for different U.S. sector stock indexes, over the period 2002M7 to 2015M10. For this purpose we use a cointegration analysis with one structural break…
I show that house prices can be modeled using machine learning (kNN and tree-bagging) and a small dataset composed of macro-economic factors (MEF), including an inflation metric (CPI), US treasury rates (10-yr), Gross Domestic Product…
To reject the Efficient Market Hypothesis a set of 5 technical indicators and 23 fundamental indicators was identified to establish the possibility of generating excess returns on the stock market. Leveraging these data points and various…
We introduce an innovative framework that leverages advanced big data techniques to analyze dynamic co-movement between stocks and their underlying fundamentals using high-frequency stock market data. Our method identifies leading…
A new model for stocks markets using integer values for each stock price is presented. In contrast with previously reported models, the variables used in the model are not of binary type, but of more general integer type. It is shown how…
We statistically investigate the distribution of share price and the distributions of three common financial indicators using data from approximately 8,000 companies publicly listed worldwide for the period 2004-2013. We find that the…
We pose the estimation and predictability of stock market performance. Three cases are taken: US, Japan, Germany, the monthly index of the value of realized investment in stocks, prices plus the value of dividend payments (OECD data). Once…
We analyze the interaction between stock prices of big companies in the USA and Germany using Granger Causality. We claim that the increase in pair-wise Granger causality interaction between prices in the times of crisis is the consequence…
For a long-time, researchers have been developing a reliable and accurate predictive model for stock price prediction. According to the literature, if predictive models are correctly designed and refined, they can painstakingly and…
The price of a stock will rarely follow the assumed model and a curious investor or a Regulatory Authority may wish to obtain a probability model the prices support. A risk neutral probability ${\cal P}^*$ for the stock's price at time $T$…
In this empirical paper we show that in the months following a crash there is a distinct connection between the fall of stock prices and the increase in the range of interest rates for a sample of bonds. This variable, which is often…
Forecasting stock returns is a challenging problem due to the highly stochastic nature of the market and the vast array of factors and events that can influence trading volume and prices. Nevertheless it has proven to be an attractive…
Financial models have increasingly become popular in recent times, and the focus of researchers has been to find the perfect model which fits all circumstances; however, this has not been thoroughly achieved, and as a result, many financial…
Distributions of assets returns exhibit a slight skewness. In this note we show that our model of endogenous price formation \cite{Reimann2006} creates an asymmetric return distribution if the price dynamics are a process in which…
Providing a measure of market risk is an important issue for investors and financial institutions. However, the existing models for this purpose are per definition symmetric. The current paper introduces an asymmetric capital asset pricing…
We consider a financial market in which two securities are traded: a stock and an index. Their prices are assumed to satisfy the Black-Scholes model. Besides assuming that the index is a tradable security, we also assume that it is…
Post Modigliani and Miller (1958), the concept of usage of arbitrage created a permanent mark on the discourses of financial framework. The arbitrage process is largely based on information dissemination amongst the stakeholders operating…