Related papers: A simple model of mortality trends aiming at unive…
Model averaging techniques in the actuarial literature aim to forecast future longevity appropriately by combining forecasts derived from various models. This approach often yields more accurate predictions than those generated by a single…
The application of Leslie matrices in demographic research is considered in this paper. The Leslie matrix is first proposed in the 1940s and gained popularity in the mid-1960s, becoming fundamental tool for predicting population dynamics.…
To better understand mortality change with age capturing the variability in individuals' rates of aging, we performed comprehensive analysis of statistical properties of a cumulative index of age-associated disorders (deficits), called a…
The methods used so far for the analysis of time changes in population health suffer from the lack of causality in their design. This results in problems with their implementation and interpretation. Here the method is presented with…
We study the dynamics of cause--specific mortality rates among countries by considering them as compositions of functions. We develop a novel framework for such data structure, with particular attention to functional PCA. The application of…
Observational cohort data is an important source of information for understanding the causal effects of treatments on survival and the degree to which these effects are mediated through changes in disease-related risk factors. However,…
A general framework of latent trait item response models for continuous responses is given. In contrast to classical test theory models, which traditionally distinguish between true scores and error scores, the responses are clearly linked…
General functions for human survival and mortality may support a possibility of general mechanisms in human ageing. We discovered that the survival and mortality curves could be described very simply and accurately by the Weibull survival…
We propose a series of methods and models in order to explore the Global Burden of Disease Study and the provided healthy life expectancy HALE estimates from the World Health Organization WHO based on the mortality mx of a population…
When modeling sub-national mortality rates, we should consider three features: (1) how to incorporate any possible correlation among sub-populations to potentially improve forecast accuracy through multi-population joint modeling; (2) how…
Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) are popular Bayesian ensemble models used in regression and classification analysis. Under this modeling framework, the regression function is approximated by an ensemble of decision trees,…
Time-varying covariates in longitudinal studies frequently evolve through reciprocal feedback, undergo role reversal, and reflect unobserved individual heterogeneity. Standard statistical frameworks often assume fixed covariate roles and…
In data analysis, latent variables play a central role because they help provide powerful insights into a wide variety of phenomena, ranging from biological to human sciences. The latent tree model, a particular type of probabilistic…
Geographic patterns in stroke mortality have been studied as far back as the 1960s, when a region of the southeastern United States became known as the "stroke belt" due to its unusually high rates of stroke mortality. While stroke…
Joint models for longitudinal and time-to-event data are commonly used in longitudinal studies to forecast disease trajectories over time. While there are many advantages to joint modeling, the standard forms suffer from limitations that…
This paper presents a significant advancement in the estimation of the Composite Link Model within a penalized likelihood framework, specifically designed to address indirect observations of grouped count data. While the model is effective…
Age-specific life-table death counts observed over time are examples of densities. Non-negativity and summability are constraints that sometimes require modifications of standard linear statistical methods. The centered log-ratio…
In type-and-coeffect systems, contexts are enriched by coeffects modeling how they are actually used, typically through annotations on single variables. Coeffects are computed bottom-up, combining, for each term, the coeffects of its…
Demographic data and recent experiments verify earlier predictions that mortality has short (few percent of the life span) memory of the previous life history, may be significantly decreased, reset to its value at a much younger age, and…
Modeling how individuals evolve over time is a fundamental problem in the natural and social sciences. However, existing datasets are often cross-sectional with each individual observed only once, making it impossible to apply traditional…