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The long-time asymptotic behavior is studied for a long-range variant of the Emch-Radin model of interacting spins. We derive upper and lower bounds on the expectation values of a class of observables. We prove analytically that the time…
We consider the tail probabilities of stock returns for a general class of stochastic volatility models. In these models, the stochastic differential equation for volatility is autonomous, time-homogeneous and dependent on only a finite…
The paper is concerned with the principal eigenvalue of some linear elliptic operators with drift in two dimensional space. We provide a refined description of the asymptotic behavior for the principal eigenvalue as the drift rate…
We investigate the evolution of quasi-static stray electric fields in a linear Paul trap over a period of several months. Depending on how these electric fields are initially induced we observe very different time scales for the field…
We present a continuous time random walk model for the scale-invariant transport found in a self-organized critical rice pile [Christensen et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 77, 107 (1996)]. From our analytical results it is shown that the dynamics…
We consider in this work a model conservative system subject to dissipation and Gaussian-type stochastic perturbations. The original conservative system possesses a continuous set of steady states, and is thus degenerate. We characterize…
We study the effect of temperature shift on aging phenomena in the Random Energy Model (REM). From calculation on the correlation function and simulation on the Zero-Field-Cooled magnetization, we find that the REM satisfies a scaling…
Aging dynamics in glassy systems is investigated by considering the hopping motion in a rugged energy landscape whose deep minima are characterized by an exponential density of states. In particular we explore the behavior of a generic…
In this paper, we study the dynamics of a random walker diffusing on a disordered one-dimensional lattice with random trappings. The distribution of escape probabilities is computed exactly for any strength of the disorder. These…
In Continual Learning (CL) contexts, concept drift typically refers to the analysis of changes in data distribution. A drift in the input data can have negative consequences on a learning predictor and the system's stability. The majority…
External and internal factors may cause a system's parameter to vary with time before it stabilizes. This drift induces a regime shift when the parameter crosses a bifurcation. Here, we study the case of an infinite dimensional system: a…
We are interested in the asymptotic behavior of Markov chains on the set of positive integers for which, loosely speaking, large jumps are rare and occur at a rate that behaves like a negative power of the current state, and such that small…
We extend the notion of consecutive pattern avoidance to considering sums over all permutations where each term is a product of weights depending on each consecutive pattern of a fixed length. We study the problem of finding the asymptotics…
In this paper, we study a class of self-exciting point processes. The intensity of the point process has a nonlinear dependence on the past history and time. When a new jump occurs, the intensity increases and we expect more jumps to come.…
We investigate the scaling of the escape rate from piecewise-linear dynamical systems displaying intermittency due to the presence of an indifferent fixed-point. Strong intermittent behaviour in the dynamics can result in the system…
Nonlinear dynamical systems may be exposed to tipping points, critical thresholds at which small changes in the external inputs or in the systems parameters abruptly shift the system to an alternative state with a contrasting dynamical…
Adaptive multilevel splitting algorithms have been introduced rather recently for estimating tail distributions in a fast and efficient way. In particular, they can be used for computing the so-called reactive trajectories corresponding to…
This paper investigates the impact of posterior drift on out-of-sample forecasting accuracy in overparametrized machine learning models. We document the loss in performance when the loadings of the data generating process change between the…
We investigate the relaxation of long-tailed distributions under stochastic dynamics that do not support such tails. Linear relaxation is found to be a borderline case in which long tails are exponentially suppressed in time but not…
Concept drift refers to the change of data distributions over time. While drift poses a challenge for learning models, requiring their continual adaption, it is also relevant in system monitoring to detect malfunctions, system failures, and…