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Throughout the last decade, random forests have established themselves as among the most accurate and popular supervised learning methods. While their black-box nature has made their mathematical analysis difficult, recent work has…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-12-10 Tim Coleman , Wei Peng , Lucas Mentch

Error bounds based on worst likely assignments use permutation tests to validate classifiers. Worst likely assignments can produce effective bounds even for data sets with 100 or fewer training examples. This paper introduces a statistic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-04-02 Eric Bax

We propose a test for a change in the mean for a sequence of functional observations that are only partially observed on subsets of the domain, with no information available on the complement. The framework accommodates important scenarios,…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-10 Šárka Hudecová , Claudia Kirch

In a regression setting with a response vector and given regressor vectors, a typical question is to what extent the response is related to these regressors, specifically, how well it can be approximated by a linear combination of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-03 Lutz Duembgen , Laurie Davies

Multiple testing of a single hypothesis and testing multiple hypotheses are usually done in terms of p-values. In this paper we replace p-values with their natural competitor, e-values, which are closely related to betting, Bayes factors,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-26 Vladimir Vovk , Ruodu Wang

External validity is often questionable in empirical research, especially in randomized experiments due to the trade-off between internal validity and external validity. To quantify the robustness of external validity, one must first…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-20 Tenglong Li

Mutation testing is a standard technique to evaluate the quality of a test suite. Due to its computationally intensive nature, many approaches have been proposed to make this technique feasible in real case scenarios. Among these…

Software Engineering · Computer Science 2016-07-11 Ali Parsai , Alessandro Murgia , Serge Demeyer

Many inference techniques for multivariate data analysis assume that the rows of the data matrix are realizations of independent and identically distributed random vectors. Such an assumption will be met, for example, if the rows of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-12-31 Peter D. Hoff

Linear regression models are useful statistical tools to analyze data sets in several different fields. There are several methods to estimate the parameters of a linear regression model. These methods usually perform under normally…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-10 Şenay Özdemir , Yeşim Güney , Yetkin Tuaç , Olcay Arslan

In this article, the estimation of reliability of a system is discussed $p(y<x)$ when strength, $X$, and stress, $Y$, are two independent exponential distribution with different scale parameters when the available data are type II Censored…

Methodology · Statistics 2008-01-08 A. M. Abd Elfattah , O. Mohamed Marwa

This article addresses issues of model criticism and model comparison in Bayesian contexts, and focusses on the use of the so-called posterior predictive p-values (ppp values). These involve a general discrepancy or conflict measure and…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-26 Nils Lid Hjort , Fredrik A. Dahl , Gunnhildur Högnadóttir Steinbakk

The p-values are often implicitly used as a measure of evidence for the hypotheses of the tests. This practice has been analyzed with different approaches. It is generally accepted for the one-sided hypothesis problem, but it is often…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Guy Morel

Retrospective testing of predictive models does not consider the real-world context in which models are deployed. Prospective validation, on the other hand, enables meaningful comparisons between data generation processes by incorporating…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-19 Steven Kearnes

Generalized linear models are often assumed to fit propensity scores, which are used to compute inverse probability weighted (IPW) estimators. In order to derive the asymptotic properties of IPW estimators, the propensity score is supposed…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-25 Julieta Molina , Mariela Sued , Marina Valdora

Permutation-based partial-correlation tests guarantee finite-sample Type I error control under any fixed design and exchangeable noise, yet their power can collapse when the permutation-augmented design aligns too closely with the covariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-04 Tianyi Wang , Guanghui Wang , Zhaojun Wang , Changliang Zou

Residual plots are often used to interrogate regression model assumptions, but interpreting them requires an understanding of how much sampling variation to expect when assumptions are satisfied. In this paper, we propose constructing…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-10-26 David I. Warton

Software packages usually report the results of statistical tests using p-values. Users often interpret these by comparing them to standard thresholds, e.g. 0.1%, 1% and 5%, which is sometimes reinforced by a star rating (***, **, *). We…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-05 Axel Gandy , Georg Hahn , Dong Ding

We consider the testing and estimation of change-points, locations where the distribution abruptly changes, in a sequence of observations. Motivated by this problem, in this contribution we first investigate the extremes of Gaussian fields…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-09 Long Bai

Forecasting and forecast evaluation are inherently sequential tasks. Predictions are often issued on a regular basis, such as every hour, day, or month, and their quality is monitored continuously. However, the classical statistical tools…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-07-04 Sebastian Arnold , Alexander Henzi , Johanna F. Ziegel

Multivariate meta-analysis is gaining prominence in evidence synthesis research because it enables simultaneous synthesis of multiple correlated outcome data, and random-effects models have generally been used for addressing between-studies…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-14 Hisashi Noma , Kengo Nagashima , Toshi A. Furukawa
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