Related papers: Another Look at Climate Sensitivity
Climate risk assessments must account for a wide range of possible futures, so scientists often use simulations made by numerous global climate models to explore potential changes in regional climates and their impacts. Some of the…
Severity of warming predicted by climate models depends on their Transient Climate Response (TCR). Inter-model spread of TCR has persisted at ~100% of its mean for decades. Existing observational constraints of TCR are based on observed…
Enhancement of the predictive power and robustness of nonlinear population dynamics models allows ecologists to make more reliable forecasts about species' long term survival. However, the limited availability of detailed ecological data,…
The long-term temperature response to a given change in CO2 forcing, or Earth-system sensitivity (ESS), is a key parameter quantifying our understanding about the relationship between changes in Earth's radiative forcing and the resulting…
Evidence-Based Climate Policy (EBCP) is an approach to policymaking that relies on evidence to make decisions about managing climate impacts, mitigation, and adaptation. A core problem for EBCP is the lack of a clear definition of evidence,…
Nonsmooth formulations of physical models are common, particularly in climate modeling. However, in many of these models, there is little justification for this modeling choice, and no mathematical indication that the resulting behavior in…
The insolation a planet receives from its parent star is the main driver of the climate and depends on the planet's orbital configuration. Planets with non-zero obliquity and eccentricity experience seasonal insolation variations. As a…
Several different factors influence the seasonal cycle of a planet. This study uses a general circulation model and an energy balance model (EBM) to assess the parameters that govern the seasonal cycle. We define two metrics to describe the…
Full-complexity Earth system models (ESMs) are computationally very expensive, limiting their use in exploring the climate outcomes of multiple emission pathways. More efficient emulators that approximate ESMs can directly map emissions…
Global Climate Models are key tools for predicting the future response of the climate system to a variety of natural and anthropogenic forcings. Here we show how to use statistical mechanics to construct operators able to flexibly predict…
The linear response to temperature changes is derived for systems with overdamped stochastic dynamics. Holding both in transient and steady state conditions, the results allow to compute nonequilibrium thermal susceptibilities from…
The problem of the insensitivity of the macroscopic behavior of any thermodynamical system to partitioning generates a bias between the reproducibility of its macroscopic behavior viewed as the simplest form of causality and its long-term…
Many papers and monographs were written about the modeling the Earth climate and its variability. However there is still an obvious need for a module that presents the fundamentals of climate modeling to students at the undergraduate level.…
Numerical climate models are used to project future climate change due to both anthropogenic and natural causes. Differences between projections from different climate models are a major source of uncertainty about future climate. Emergent…
We conduct a sensitivity analysis of a new type of integrated climate-economic model recently proposed in the literature, where the core economic component is based on the Goodwin-Keen dynamics instead of a neoclassical growth model.…
Models of coupled human-environment systems often face a tradeoff between realism and tractability. Spectrum opinion models, where social preferences vary continuously, offer descriptive richness but are computationally demanding and…
With a changing climate, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are likely to increase, posing a threat to infrastructure systems' resilience. The response of infrastructure systems to localised failures depends on whether…
Accurate and high-resolution Earth system model (ESM) simulations are essential to assess the ecological and socio-economic impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are computationally too expensive to be run at sufficiently high…
Projecting climate change is a generalization problem: we extrapolate the recent past using physical models across past, present, and future climates. Current climate models require representations of processes that occur at scales smaller…
In equilibrium systems with short-ranged interactions, the relative stability of different thermodynamic states generally does not depend on system size (as long as this size is larger than the interaction range). Here, we use a large…