Related papers: Is It Real, or Is It Randomized?: A Financial Turi…
A new test for measuring the accuracy of financial market risk estimations is introduced. It is based on the probability integral transform (PIT) of the ex post realized returns using the ex ante probability distributions underlying the…
The Turing test aimed to recognize the behavior of a human from that of a computer algorithm. Such challenge is more relevant than ever in today's social media context, where limited attention and technology constrain the expressive power…
We examine two types of binary betting markets, whose primary goal is for profit (such as sports gambling) or to gain information (such as prediction markets). We articulate the interplay between belief and price-setting to analyse both…
This paper proposes a methodology to empirically validate an agent-based model (ABM) that generates artificial financial time series data comparable with real-world financial data. The approach is based on comparing the results of the ABM…
We study a dynamical Ising model of agents' opinions (buy or sell) with coupling coefficients reassessed continuously in time according to how past external news (magnetic field) have explained realized market returns. By combining herding,…
Can a probabilistic gambler get arbitrarily rich when all deterministic gamblers fail? We study this problem in the context of algorithmic randomness, introducing a new notion -- almost everywhere computable randomness. A binary sequence…
We describe how the market-based average and volatility of the "actual" return, which the investors gain within their market sales, depend on the statistical moments, volatilities, and correlations of the current and past market trade…
In the theory of financial markets, a stylized fact is a qualitative summary of a pattern in financial market data that is observed across multiple assets, asset classes and time horizons. In this article, we test a set of eleven stylized…
The current cycle of hype and anxiety concerning the benefits and risks to human society of Artificial Intelligence is fuelled, not only by the increasing use of generative AI and other AI tools by the general public, but also by claims…
Inspired by the Turing test, we present a novel methodological framework to assess the extent to which a population of machines mirrors the philosophical views of a population of humans. The framework consists of three steps: (i)…
We reason about possible future development of quantum game theory and its impact on information processing and the emerging information society. Two of the authors have recently proposed a quantum description of financial market in terms…
Widely considered a cornerstone of human morality, trust shapes many aspects of human social interactions. In this work, we present a theoretical analysis of the $\textit{trust game}$, the canonical task for studying trust in behavioral and…
As artificial intelligence systems become increasingly prevalent in education, a fundamental challenge emerges: how can we verify if an AI truly understands how students think and reason? Traditional evaluation methods like measuring…
Although many game-theoretic models replicate real interactions that often rely on natural language, explicit study of games where language is central to strategic interaction remains limited. This paper introduces the \emph{conversation…
We consider the problem of neural network training in a time-varying context. Machine learning algorithms have excelled in problems that do not change over time. However, problems encountered in financial markets are often time-varying. We…
The objective of this work is the investigation of complexity, asymmetry, stochasticity and non-linearity of the financial and economic systems by using the tools of statistical mechanics and information theory. More precisely, this thesis…
CAPTCHAs or reverse Turing tests are real-time assessments used by programs (or computers) to tell humans and machines apart. This is achieved by assigning and assessing hard AI problems that could only be solved easily by human but not by…
We study the emergence of instabilities in a stylized model of a financial market, when different market actors calculate prices according to different (local) market measures. We derive typical properties for ensembles of large random…
Do algorithms for drawing graphs pass the Turing Test? That is, are their outputs indistinguishable from graphs drawn by humans? We address this question through a human-centred experiment, focusing on `small' graphs, of a size for which it…
We present a formalism that captures the process of proving quantum superiority to skeptics as an interactive game between two agents, supervised by a referee. Bob, is sampling from a classical distribution on a quantum device that is…