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In this article, a general problem of sequential statistical inference for general discrete-time stochastic processes is considered. The problem is to minimize an average sample number given that Bayesian risk due to incorrect decision does…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-10-18 Andrey Novikov

Stepwise multiple testing procedures have attracted several statisticians for decades and are also quite popular with statistics users because of their technical simplicity. The Bonferroni procedure has been one of the earliest and most…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-02-21 Monitirtha Dey

Selective classification is a powerful tool for automated decision-making in high-risk scenarios, allowing classifiers to act only when confident and abstain when uncertainty is high. Given a target accuracy, our goal is to minimize…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-10-28 Mohamed Ndaoud , Peter Radchenko , Bradley Rava

We consider optimal stopping problems, in which a sequence of independent random variables is drawn from a known continuous density. The objective of such problems is to find a procedure which maximizes the expected reward; this is often…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-07 Hugh Entwistle , Christopher Lustri , Georgy Sofronov

We introduce a model for neural scaling laws under sparse activations. In the model, test loss is often dominated by rare coordinates that are never observed in the training input. This mechanism induces a novel bottleneck absent from dense…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-25 John Sous , Michael Winer

Higher criticism is a large-scale testing procedure that can attain the optimal detection boundary for sparse and faint signals. However, there has been a lack of knowledge in most existing works about its asymptotic distribution for more…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-11 Jingkun Qiu

Recently, it has been shown that incoherence is an unrealistic assumption for compressed sensing when applied to many inverse problems. Instead, the key property that permits efficient recovery in such problems is so-called local…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-07-09 Alex D. Jones , Ben Adcock , Anders C. Hansen

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a powerful paradigm for efficient optimization of black-box objective functions. High-dimensional BO presents a particular challenge, in part because the curse of dimensionality makes it difficult to define --…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-11 David Eriksson , Martin Jankowiak

Optimizing objectives under constraints, where both the objectives and constraints are black box functions, is a common scenario in real-world applications such as scientific experimental design, design of medical therapies, and industrial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-16 Fengxue Zhang , Zejie Zhu , Yuxin Chen

The aim of this paper is to discuss both higher-order asymptotic expansions and skewed approximations for the Bayesian Discrepancy Measure for testing precise statistical hypotheses. In particular, we derive results on third-order…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-02 Elena Bortolato , Francesco Bertolino , Monica Musio , Laura Ventura

A Bayesian non-parametric framework for studying time-to-event data is proposed, where the prior distribution is allowed to depend on an additional random source, and may update with the sample size. Such scenarios are natural, for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-05-06 Martin Bladt , Jorge González Cázares

We consider the problem of binary classification with abstention in the relatively less studied \emph{bounded-rate} setting. We begin by obtaining a characterization of the Bayes optimal classifier for an arbitrary input-label distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-24 Shubhanshu Shekhar , Mohammad Ghavamzadeh , Tara Javidi

We revisit the asymptotic bias analysis of the distributed Pareto optimization algorithm developed based on the diffusion strategies. We propose an alternative way to analyze the asymptotic bias of this algorithm at small step-sizes and…

Distributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing · Computer Science 2016-06-07 Reza Arablouei , Kutluyıl Doğançay , Stefan Werner , Yih-Fang Huang

Consider the problem on sequential change-point detection on multiple data streams. We provide the asymptotic lower bounds of the detection delays at all levels of change-point sparsity and we derive a smaller asymptotic lower bound of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-02 Jingyan Huang

Bayesian model selection provides a formal method of determining the level of support for new parameters in a model. However, if there is not a specific enough underlying physical motivation for the new parameters it can be hard to assign…

Astrophysics · Physics 2009-11-13 Christopher Gordon , Roberto Trotta

This paper presents a Bayesian framework for assessing the adequacy of a model without the necessity of explicitly enumerating a specific alternate model. A test statistic is developed for tracking the performance of the model across…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-03-25 Kathryn Blackmond Laskey

Hierarchical statistical models are widely employed in information science and data engineering. The models consist of two types of variables: observable variables that represent the given data and latent variables for the unobservable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-02-21 Keisuke Yamazaki

We consider the problem of estimating the proportion $\theta$ of true null hypotheses in a multiple testing context. The setup is classically modeled through a semiparametric mixture with two components: a uniform distribution on interval…

Applications · Statistics 2013-01-09 Van Hanh Nguyen , Catherine Matias

In this paper we construct optimal designs for frequentist model averaging estimation. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the model averaging estimate with fixed weights in the case where the competing models are non-nested and none…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-27 Kira Alhorn , Holger Dette , Kirsten Schorning

A general method is presented for deriving the limiting behavior of estimators that are defined as the values of parameters optimizing an empirical criterion function. The asymptotic behavior of such estimators is typically deduced from…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2008-12-18 Peter Radchenko