Related papers: A Pedagogical "Toy" Climate Model
In this work we suggest that a turbulent phase of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability can be explained as a universal stochastic wave traveling with constant speed in a properly renormalized system. This wave, originating from ordinary…
Classical thermodynamics treats temperature as a state variable characterizing systems in equilibrium with idealized infinite reservoirs. We argue that this framing, while computationally exact, obscures an essential physical reality: any…
A transition to a low-carbon electricity supply is crucial to limit the impacts of climate change. Reducing carbon emissions could help prevent the world from reaching a tipping point, where runaway emissions are likely. Runaway emissions…
Recent experimental works demonstrated that the Anthropogenic Global Warming (AGW) hypothesis, embodied in a series of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) global climate models, is erroneous. These works prove that atmospheric…
We consider a coupled atmosphere-ocean model, which involves hydrodynamics, thermodynamics and nonautonomous interaction at the air-sea interface. First, we show that the coupled atmosphere-ocean system is stable under the external…
Quantifying long-term historical climate is fundamental to understanding recent climate change. Most instrumentally recorded climate data are only available for the past 200 years, so proxy observations from natural archives are often…
The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program is a U.S. Department of Energy project that collects meteorological observations at several locations around the world in order to study how weather processes affect global climate change. As…
A model to describe the spontaneous formation of military and economic coalitions among a group of countries is proposed using spin glass theory. Between each couple of countries, there exists a bond exchange coupling which is either zero,…
Paleoclimate data help us assess climate sensitivity and potential human-made climate effects. We conclude that Earth in the warmest interglacial periods of the past million years was less than 1{\deg}C warmer than in the Holocene. Polar…
Emulators, or reduced complexity climate models, are surrogate Earth system models that produce projections of key climate quantities with minimal computational resources. Using time-series modelling or more advanced machine learning…
A new family of inflationary models is introduced and analysed. The behaviour of the parameters characterising the models suggest preferred values, which generate the most interesting testable predictions. Results are further improved if…
The population dynamics and stability of ecosystems of interacting species is studied from the perspective of non-equilibrium thermodynamics by assuming that species, through their biotic and abiotic interactions, are units of entropy…
Despite much scientific evidence, a large fraction of the American public doubts that greenhouse gases are causing global warming. We present a simulation model as a computational test-bed for climate prediction markets. Traders adapt their…
A deterministic multiscale toy model is studied in which a chaotic fast subsystem triggers rare transitions between slow regimes, akin to weather or climate regimes. Using homogenization techniques, a reduced stochastic parametrization…
A new statistical approach is presented to study the thermal instability process of optically thin unmagnetized plasma. In this approach the time evolution of mass distribution function over temperature is calculated. This function…
Climate change is progressing asynchronously between the Arctic and Antarctic, with important implications for global climate dynamics. While the Arctic has experienced rapid warming and pronounced amplification, the Antarctic has exhibited…
Existing ML-based atmospheric models are not suitable for climate prediction, which requires long-term stability and physical consistency. We present ACE (AI2 Climate Emulator), a 200M-parameter, autoregressive machine learning emulator of…
The local equilibrium thermodynamics is a basic assumption of macroscopic descriptions of the out of equilibrium dynamics for Hamiltonian systems. We numerically analyze the Hamiltonian Potts model in two dimensions to study the violation…
Improved knowledge of glacial-to-interglacial global temperature change implies that fast-feedback equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is 1.2 +/- 0.3{\deg}C (2$\sigma$) per W/m$^2$. Consistent analysis of temperature over the full…
A key challenge for computationally intensive state-of-the-art Earth System models is to distinguish global warming signals from interannual variability. Here we introduce DLESyM, a parsimonious deep learning model that accurately simulates…