Related papers: Minimal Markov Models
Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…
We introduce and study a new model that we call the {\em matching model}. Items arrive one by one in a buffer and depart from it as soon as possible but by pairs. The items of a departing pair are said to be {\em matched}. There is a finite…
This paper is a survey of various proofs of the so called {\em fundamental theorem of Markov chains}: every ergodic Markov chain has a unique positive stationary distribution and the chain attains this distribution in the limit independent…
Substitution Markov chains have been introduced [7] as a new model to describe molecular evolution. In this note, we study the associated Martin boundaries from a probabilistic and topological viewpoint. An example is given that, although…
Parametric Markov chains (pMC) are used to model probabilistic systems with unknown or partially known probabilities. Although (universal) pMC verification for reachability properties is known to be coETR-complete, there have been efforts…
We compare different selection criteria to choose the number of latent states of a multivariate latent Markov model for longitudinal data. This model is based on an underlying Markov chain to represent the evolution of a latent…
We consider the problem of flexible modeling of higher order hidden Markov models when the number of latent states and the nature of the serial dependence, including the true order, are unknown. We propose Bayesian nonparametric methodology…
We formulate some simple conditions under which a Markov chain may be approximated by the solution to a differential equation, with quantifiable error probabilities. The role of a choice of coordinate functions for the Markov chain is…
Switching dynamical systems are an expressive model class for the analysis of time-series data. As in many fields within the natural and engineering sciences, the systems under study typically evolve continuously in time, it is natural to…
Nonparametric identification and maximum likelihood estimation for finite-state hidden Markov models are investigated. We obtain identification of the parameters as well as the order of the Markov chain if the transition probability…
To better understand the flows of ideas or information through social and biological systems, researchers develop maps that reveal important patterns in network flows. In practice, network flow models have implied memoryless first-order…
We study networks of biochemical reactions modelled by continuous-time Markov processes. Such networks typically contain many molecular species and reactions and are hard to study analytically as well as by simulation. Particularly, we are…
Many studies involving large Markov chains require determining a smaller representative (aggregated) chains. Each {\em superstate} in the representative chain represents a {\em group of related} states in the original Markov chain.…
Multi-state models are frequently applied for representing processes evolving through a discrete set of state. Important classes of multi-state models arise when transitions between states may depend on the time since entry into the current…
Composition of low-dimensional distributions, whose foundations were laid in the papaer published in the Proceeding of UAI'97 (Jirousek 1997), appeared to be an alternative apparatus to describe multidimensional probabilistic models. In…
In this research the technology of complex Markov chains is applied to predict financial time series. The main distinction of complex or high-order Markov Chains and simple first-order ones is the existing of aftereffect or memory. The…
Modeling unknown systems from data is a precursor of system optimization and sequential decision making. In this paper, we focus on learning a Markov model from a single trajectory of states. Suppose that the transition model has a small…
From the Bayesian perspective, the category of conditional probabilities (a variant of the Kleisli category of the Giry monad, whose objects are measurable spaces and arrows are Markov kernels) gives a nice framework for conceptualization…
In this paper, we provide a novel algorithm for solving planning and learning problems of Markov decision processes. The proposed algorithm follows a policy iteration-type update by using a rank-one approximation of the transition…
We present a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method for estimating posterior probabilities of structural features in Bayesian networks. The method draws samples from the posterior distribution of partial orders on the nodes; for each sampled…