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Forecast combination methods have traditionally emphasized symmetric loss functions, particularly squared error loss, with equally weighted combinations often justified as a robust approach under such criteria. However, these justifications…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-04-08 Henry D. van Eijk , Sujit K. Ghosh

Empirical likelihood is a popular nonparametric statistical tool that does not require any distributional assumptions. In this paper, we explore the possibility of conducting variable selection via Bayesian empirical likelihood. We show…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-13 Yichen Cheng , Yichuan Zhao

A major challenge in state estimation with model-based observers are low-quality models that lack of relevant dynamics. We address this issue by simultaneously estimating the system's states and its model uncertainties by a square root UKF.…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-11-22 Ricarda-Samantha Götte , Julia Timmermann

Bayesian parameter inference depends on a choice of prior probability distribution for the parameters in question. The prior which makes the posterior distribution maximally sensitive to data is called the Jeffreys prior, and it is…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2019-02-25 Steen Hannestad , Thomas Tram

The hyperparameters in Gaussian process regression (GPR) model with a specified kernel are often estimated from the data via the maximum marginal likelihood. Due to the non-convexity of marginal likelihood with respect to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-01-15 Zexun Chen , Bo Wang

A new methodology for model determination in decomposable graphical Gaussian models is developed. The Bayesian paradigm is used and, for each given graph, a hyper inverse Wishart prior distribution on the covariance matrix is considered.…

Computation · Statistics 2015-03-13 Sophie Donnet , Jean-Michel Marin

This paper develops a slice sampler for Bayesian linear regression models with arbitrary priors. The new sampler has two advantages over current approaches. One, it is faster than many custom implementations that rely on auxiliary latent…

Computation · Statistics 2018-06-18 P. Richard Hahn , Jingyu He , Hedibert Lopes

In this paper several related estimation problems are addressed from a Bayesian point of view and optimal estimators are obtained for each of them when some natural loss functions are considered. Namely, we are interested in estimating a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-27 A. G. Nogales

Due to their conjugate posteriors, Gaussian process priors are attractive for estimating the drift of stochastic differential equations with continuous time observations. However, their performance strongly depends on the choice of the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-04 Jan van Waaij

In this paper, we introduce a new sparsity-promoting prior, namely, the "normal product" prior, and develop an efficient algorithm for sparse signal recovery under the Bayesian framework. The normal product distribution is the distribution…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-25 Zhou Zhou , Kaihui Liu , Jun Fang

Bayesian inference on non-Gaussian data is often non-analytic and requires computationally expensive approximations such as sampling or variational inference. We propose an approximate inference framework primarily designed to be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-12 Marius Hobbhahn , Philipp Hennig

While the choice of prior is one of the most critical parts of the Bayesian inference workflow, recent Bayesian deep learning models have often fallen back on vague priors, such as standard Gaussians. In this review, we highlight the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-03-21 Vincent Fortuin

We introduce a Bayesian prior distribution, the Logit-Normal continuous analogue of the spike-and-slab (LN-CASS), which enables flexible parameter estimation and variable/model selection in a variety of settings. We demonstrate its use and…

Applications · Statistics 2018-10-04 William Thomson , Sara Jabbari , Angela Taylor , Wiebke Arlt , David Smith

When modeling a probability distribution with a Bayesian network, we are faced with the problem of how to handle continuous variables. Most previous work has either solved the problem by discretizing, or assumed that the data are generated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-02-21 George H. John , Pat Langley

Probabilistic neural networks are typically modeled with independent weight priors, which do not capture weight correlations in the prior and do not provide a parsimonious interface to express properties in function space. A desirable class…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-12 Theofanis Karaletsos , Thang D. Bui

We focus on Bayesian inverse problems with Gaussian likelihood, linear forward model, and priors that can be formulated as a Gaussian mixture. Such a mixture is expressed as an integral of Gaussian density functions weighted by a mixing…

Computation · Statistics 2024-08-30 Rafael Flock , Yiqiu Dong , Felipe Uribe , Olivier Zahm

We consider Bayesian shrinkage predictions for the Normal regression problem under the frequentist Kullback-Leibler risk function. Firstly, we consider the multivariate Normal model with an unknown mean and a known covariance. While the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Kei Kobayashi , Fumiyasu Komaki

Additive Bayesian networks are types of graphical models that extend the usual Bayesian generalized linear model to multiple dependent variables through the factorisation of the joint probability distribution of the underlying variables.…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-19 Gilles Kratzer , Reinhard Furrer , Marta Pittavino

Recently quantum prediction problem was proposed in the Bayesian framework. It is shown that Bayesian predictive density operators are the best predictive density operators when we evaluate them by using the average relative entropy based…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 F. Tanaka , F. Komaki

We propose a methodology for modeling and comparing probability distributions within a Bayesian nonparametric framework. Building on dependent normalized random measures, we consider a prior distribution for a collection of discrete random…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-01 Mario Beraha , Jim E. Griffin
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