Related papers: Stochastic modeling of Congress
The goal of this paper is to estimate some parameters of simple social harmonic oscillations modelling U.S. Presidential Approval and Macropartisanship. The harmonic oscillations are simplest solutions of equations of the deterministic…
In this paper, we consider a leader-following consensus problem for networks of continuous-time integrator agents with a time-varying leader under measurement noises. We propose a neighbor-based state-estimation protocol for every agent to…
Scale-free dynamics in physical and biological systems can arise from a variety of causes. Here, we explore a branching process which leads to such dynamics. We find conditions for the appearance of power laws and study quantitatively what…
In the Cont-Bouchaud model [cond-mat/9712318] of stock markets, percolation clusters act as buying or selling investors and their statistics controls that of the price variations. Rather than fixing the concentration controlling each…
We introduce and solve a model that mimics the herding effect in financial markets when groups of agents share information. The number of agents in the model is growing and at each time step either (i) with probability $p$ an incoming agent…
We present analytical investigations of a multiplicative stochastic process that models a simple investor dynamics in a random environment. The dynamics of the investor's budget, $x(t)$, depends on the stochasticity of the return on…
We analyze the size dependence and temporal stability of firm bankruptcy risk in the US economy by applying Zipf scaling techniques. We focus on a single risk factor-the debt-to-asset ratio R-in order to study the stability of the Zipf…
When does a crisis-induced surge in radical-party support fade away, and when does it become a durable realignment? We address this in a mathematical sociology threshold model on a conserved population. The baseline admits a global…
Understanding the dependence structure between response variables is an important component in the analysis of correlated multivariate data. This article focuses on modeling dependence structures in multivariate binary data, motivated by a…
Political polarization has been a subject that has attracted many studies in recent years. We have developed an opinion dynamics model with affective homophily effect and national social norm effect to describe this phenomenon. The time…
Multivariate probability density functions of returns are constructed in order to model the empirical behavior of returns in a financial time series. They describe the well-established deviations from the Gaussian random walk, such as an…
Using FOMC transcripts and customized deep learning models, we quantify ``hidden dissent'', or disagreement in the FOMC that is unobserved in formal votes. We find hidden dissent to be prevalent and systematically driven by macroeconomic…
In this work we investigate how future actions are influenced by the previous ones, in the specific contexts of scientific collaborations and friendships on social networks. We are not interested in modeling the process of link formation…
We investigate various aspects of the statistics of leaders in growing network models defined by stochastic attachment rules. The leader is the node with highest degree at a given time (or the node which reached that degree first if there…
This paper studies high-dimensional curve time series with common stochastic trends. A dual functional factor model structure is adopted with a high-dimensional factor model for the observed curve time series and a low-dimensional factor…
The critical dynamics of conformal field theories on random surfaces is investigated beyond the previously studied dynamics of the overall area and the genus. It is found that the evolution of the order parameter in physical time performs a…
We analyze the sequence of time intervals between consecutive stock trades of thirty companies representing eight sectors of the U. S. economy over a period of four years. For all companies we find that: (i) the probability density function…
We provide a general probabilistic framework within which we establish scaling limits for a class of continuous-time stochastic volatility models with self-exciting jump dynamics. In the scaling limit, the joint dynamics of asset returns…
Statistical distributions with heavy tails are ubiquitous in natural and social phenomena. Since the entries in heavy tail have disproportional significance, the knowledge of its exact shape is very important. Citations of scientific papers…
In this paper continuous time random walk models approximating fractional space-time diffusion processes are studied. Stochastic processes associated with the considered equations represent time-changed processes, where the time-change…