Related papers: The tail empirical process for some long memory se…
We use the martingale convergence method to get the weak convergence theorem on general functionals of partial sums of independent heavy-tailed random variables. The limiting process is the stochastic integral driven by $\alpha-$stable…
The aim of this paper is to present a simple stochastic model that accounts for the effects of a long-memory in volatility on option pricing. The starting point is the stochastic Black-Scholes equation involving volatility with long-range…
The extremes of a univariate Markov chain with regulary varying stationary marginal distribution and asymptotically linear behavior are known to exhibit a multiplicative random walk structure called the tail chain. In this paper, we extend…
We extend known saddlepoint tail probability approximations to multivariate cases, including multivariate conditional cases. Our approximation applies to both continuous and lattice variables, and requires the existence of a cumulant…
We consider a discrete-time version of a Hawkes process defined as a Poisson auto-regressive process whose parameters depend on the past of the trajectory. We allow these parameters to take on negative values, modelling inhibition. More…
Identifying groups of variables that may be large simultaneously amounts to finding out which joint tail dependence coefficients of a multivariate distribution are positive. The asymptotic distribution of a vector of nonparametric,…
We address the problem of long-range memory in the financial markets. There are two conceptually different ways to reproduce power-law decay of auto-correlation function: using fractional Brownian motion as well as non-linear stochastic…
Preferential attachment is widely used to model power-law behavior of degree distributions in both directed and undirected networks. Practical analyses on the tail exponent of the power-law degree distribution use the Hill estimator as one…
We present an empirical study of the subordination hypothesis for a stochastic time series of a stock price. The fluctuating rate of trading is identified with the stochastic variance of the stock price, as in the continuous-time random…
The study of tail behaviour of SGD-induced processes has been attracting a lot of interest, due to offering strong guarantees with respect to individual runs of an algorithm. While many works provide high-probability guarantees, quantifying…
Machine learning inference should be subject to stringent inference time constraints while ensuring high inference quality, especially in safety-critical (e.g., autonomous driving) and mission-critical (e.g., emotion recognition) contexts.…
We prove limit theorems of an entirely new type for certain long memory regularly varying stationary infinitely divisible random processes. These theorems involve multiple phase transitions governed by how long the memory is. Apart from one…
An asymptotic model for extreme behavior of certain Markov chains is the "tail chain". Generally taking the form of a multiplicative random walk, it is useful in deriving extremal characteristics such as point process limits. We place this…
Fractal behavior and long-range dependence have been observed in an astonishing number of physical systems. Either phenomenon has been modeled by self-similar random functions, thereby implying a linear relationship between fractal…
The use of expectiles in risk management has recently gathered remarkable momentum due to their excellent axiomatic and probabilistic properties. In particular, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures only consists of…
In forecasting problems it is important to know whether or not recent events represent a regime change (low long-term predictive potential), or rather a local manifestation of longer term effects (potentially higher predictive potential).…
The extremal behaviour of a Markov chain is typically characterized by its tail chain. For asymptotically dependent Markov chains existing formulations fail to capture the full evolution of the extreme event when the chain moves out of the…
This article introduces a non-parametric information-theoretic approach to inference about the tail of a continuous or a discrete distribution. Leveraging a new concept named tail profile -- a set of information-theoretic quantities…
The extreme values theory presents specific tools for modeling and predicting extreme phenomena. In particular, risk assessment is often analyzed through measures for tail dependence and high values clustering. Despite technological…
We consider the estimation of large covariance and precision matrices from high-dimensional sub-Gaussian or heavier-tailed observations with slowly decaying temporal dependence. The temporal dependence is allowed to be long-range so with…