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In this work we describe a new model for the evolution of a diploid structured population backwards in time that allows for large migrations and uneven offspring distributions. The model generalizes both the mean-field model of Birkner et…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-11 Maximillian Newman

Evolutionary models for populations of constant size are frequently studied using the Moran model, the Wright-Fisher model, or their diffusion limits. When evolution is neutral, a random genealogy given through Kingman's coalescent is used…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2012-07-31 Peter Pfaffelhuber , Benedikt Vogt

Sweepstakes reproduction refers to a highly skewed individual recruitment success without involving natural selection and may apply to individuals in broadcast spawning populations characterised by Type III survivorship. We consider an…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2026-01-14 Jonathan A Chetwynd-Diggle , Bjarki Eldon

Effective population size characterizes the genetic variability in a population and is a parameter of paramount importance in population genetics. Kingman's coalescent process enables inference of past population dynamics directly from…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-01-20 Mandev S. Gill , Philippe Lemey , Shannon N. Bennett , Roman Biek , Marc A. Suchard

When an advantageous mutation occurs in a population, the favorable allele may spread to the entire population in a short time, an event known as a selective sweep. As a result, when we sample $n$ individuals from a population and trace…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Rick Durrett , Jason Schweinsberg

We study coalescent processes conditional on the population pedigree under the exchangeable diploid bi-parental population model of \citet{BirknerEtAl2018}. While classical coalescent models average over all reproductive histories, thereby…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-22 Frederic Alberti , Matthias Birkner , Wai-Tong Louis Fan , John Wakeley

The classical model for the genealogies of a neutrally evolving population in a fixed environment is due to Kingman. Kingman's coalescent process, which produces a binary tree, universally emerges from many microscopic models in which the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-12-05 Ethan Levien

We identify a new natural coalescent structure, which we call the seed-bank coalescent, that describes the gene genealogy of populations under the influence of a strong seed-bank effect, where "dormant forms" of individuals (such as seeds…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-10 Jochen Blath , Adrián González Casanova , Noemi Kurt , Maite Wilke-Berenguer

We establish convergence to the Kingman coalescent for a class of age-structured population models with time-constant population size. Time is discrete with unit called a year. Offspring numbers in a year may depend on mother's age.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Serik Sagitov , Peter Jagers

Sweepstakes reproduction may be generated by chance matching of reproduction with favorable environmental conditions. Gene genealogies generated by sweepstakes reproduction are in the domain of attraction of multiple-merger coalescents…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-15 Bjarki Eldon

For a one-locus haploid infinite population with discrete generations, the celebrated Kingman's model describes the evolution of fitness distributions under the competition of selection and mutation, with a constant mutation probability.…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-01 Linglong Yuan

The coalescent is a stochastic process representing ancestral lineages in a population undergoing neutral genetic drift. Originally defined for a well-mixed population, the coalescent has been adapted in various ways to accommodate spatial,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-07-02 Benjamin Allen , Alex McAvoy

Kingman's model describes the evolution of a one-locus haploid population of infinite size and discrete generations under the competition of selection and mutation. A random generalisation has been made in a previous paper which assumes all…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-01 Linglong Yuan

The Wright-Fisher model and the Moran model are both widely used in population genetics. They describe the time evolution of the frequency of an allele in a well-mixed population with fixed size. We propose a simple and tractable model…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2024-12-30 Arthur Alexandre , Alia Abbara , Cecilia Fruet , Claude Loverdo , Anne-Florence Bitbol

Coalescent theory combined with statistical modeling allows us to estimate effective population size fluctuations from molecular sequences of individuals sampled from a population of interest. When sequences are sampled serially through…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-11-02 Michael D. Karcher , Marc A. Suchard , Gytis Dudas , Vladimir N. Minin

We analyze the long-term stability of a stochastic model designed to illustrate the adaptation of a population to variation in its environment. A piecewise-deterministic process modeling adaptation is coupled to a Feller logistic diffusion…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-09-14 Aurélien Velleret

We introduce a general diploid population model with self-fertilization and possible overlapping generations, and study the genealogy of a sample of $n$ genes as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Unlike traditional approach in…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-01-01 Louis Wai-Tong Fan , Maximillian Newman , John Wakeley

The goal of these lectures is to review some mathematical aspects of random tree models used in evolutionary biology to model gene trees or species trees. We start with stochastic models of tree shapes (finite trees without edge lengths),…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-08-30 Amaury Lambert

The results in this paper provide new information on asymptotic properties of classical models: the neutral Kingman coalescent under a general finite-alleles, parent-dependent mutation mechanism, and its generalisation, the ancestral…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-08 Martina Favero , Henrik Hult

A well-established model for the genealogy of a large population in equilibrium is Kingman's coalescent. For the population together with its genealogy evolving in time, this gives rise to a time-stationary tree-valued process. We study the…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-05-18 Peter Pfaffelhuber , Anton Wakolbinger , Heinz Weisshaupt
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