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Estimating the model evidence - or mariginal likelihood of the data - is a notoriously difficult task for finite and infinite mixture models and we reexamine here different Monte Carlo techniques advocated in the recent literature, as well…

Computation · Statistics 2022-05-12 Adrien Hairault , Christian P. Robert , Judith Rousseau

The marginal likelihood of a model is a key quantity for assessing the evidence provided by the data in support of a model. The marginal likelihood is the normalizing constant for the posterior density, obtained by integrating the product…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-11-30 Mathieu Fourment , Andrew F. Magee , Chris Whidden , Arman Bilge , Frederick A. Matsen , Vladimir N. Minin

Bayesian inference typically relies on specifying a parametric model that approximates the data-generating process. However, misspecified models can yield poor convergence rates and unreliable posterior calibration. Bayesian empirical…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-27 Kenyon Ng , Weichang Yu , Howard D. Bondell

We propose a fast and theoretically grounded method for Bayesian variable selection and model averaging in latent variable regression models. Our framework addresses three interrelated challenges: (i) intractable marginal likelihoods, (ii)…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-16 Gregor Zens , Mark F. J. Steel

We present a framework for approximate Bayesian inference when only a limited number of noisy log-likelihood evaluations can be obtained due to computational constraints, which is becoming increasingly common for applications of complex…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-01 Marko Järvenpää , Jukka Corander

Multilevel models (MLMs) are a central building block of the Bayesian workflow. They enable joint, interpretable modeling of data across hierarchical levels and provide a fully probabilistic quantification of uncertainty. Despite their…

Motivated by genome-wide association studies, we consider a standard linear model with one additional random effect in situations where many predictors have been collected on the same subjects and each predictor is analyzed separately.…

Applications · Statistics 2013-04-24 Matti Pirinen , Peter Donnelly , Chris C. A. Spencer

Bayesian variable selection is a powerful tool for data analysis, as it offers a principled method for variable selection that accounts for prior information and uncertainty. However, wider adoption of Bayesian variable selection has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-06 Martin Jankowiak

We propose a method to improve the efficiency and accuracy of amortized Bayesian inference by leveraging universal symmetries in the joint probabilistic model of parameters and data. In a nutshell, we invert Bayes' theorem and estimate the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-24 Marvin Schmitt , Desi R. Ivanova , Daniel Habermann , Ullrich Köthe , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Stefan T. Radev

Bayesian models often involve a small set of hyperparameters determined by maximizing the marginal likelihood. Bayesian optimization is a popular iterative method where a Gaussian process posterior of the underlying function is sequentially…

Computation · Statistics 2022-08-18 Oskar Gustafsson , Mattias Villani , Pär Stockhammar

Modeling binary and categorical data is one of the most commonly encountered tasks of applied statisticians and econometricians. While Bayesian methods in this context have been available for decades now, they often require a high level of…

Computation · Statistics 2023-07-03 Gregor Zens , Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter , Helga Wagner

Finite mixtures of matrix normal distributions are a powerful tool for classifying three-way data in unsupervised problems. The distribution of each component is assumed to be a matrix variate normal density. The mixture model can be…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-03-07 Cinzia Viroli

The generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is widely used for analyzing correlated data, particularly in large-scale biomedical and social science applications. Scalable Bayesian inference for GLMMs is challenging because the marginal…

Computation · Statistics 2026-01-07 Samuel I. Berchuck , Youngsoo Baek , Felipe A. Medeiros , Andrea Agazzi

Likelihood-free Bayesian inference algorithms are popular methods for calibrating the parameters of complex, stochastic models, required when the likelihood of the observed data is intractable. These algorithms characteristically rely…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-23 Thomas P Prescott , David J Warne , Ruth E Baker

Radial velocity (RV) planet searches are increasingly finding planets with small velocity amplitudes, with long orbital periods, or in multiple planet systems. Bayesian inference has the potential to improve the interpretation of existing…

Astrophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 Eric B. Ford , Philip C. Gregory

Bayesian variable selection is a powerful tool for data analysis, as it offers a principled method for variable selection that accounts for prior information and uncertainty. However, wider adoption of Bayesian variable selection has been…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-13 Martin Jankowiak

How do we compare between hypotheses that are entirely consistent with observations? The marginal likelihood (aka Bayesian evidence), which represents the probability of generating our observations from a prior, provides a distinctive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-03 Sanae Lotfi , Pavel Izmailov , Gregory Benton , Micah Goldblum , Andrew Gordon Wilson

Bayesian model comparison implements Occam's razor through its sensitivity to the prior. However, prior-dependence makes it important to assess the influence of plausible alternative priors. Such prior sensitivity analyses for the Bayesian…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-22 Zixiao Hu , Jason D. McEwen

Good large sample performance is typically a minimum requirement of any model selection criterion. This article focuses on the consistency property of the Bayes factor, a commonly used model comparison tool, which has experienced a recent…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-07-04 Siddhartha Chib , Todd A. Kuffner

The Bayes factor is a widely used criterion in model comparison and its logarithm is a difference of out-of-sample predictive scores under the logarithmic scoring rule. However, when some of the candidate models involve vague priors on…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-07 Stephane Shao , Pierre E. Jacob , Jie Ding , Vahid Tarokh