Related papers: Hedged maximum likelihood estimation
We provide a new interpretation of Hessian locally linear embedding (HLLE), revealing that it is essentially a variant way to implement the same idea of locally linear embedding (LLE). Based on the new interpretation, a substantial…
We consider a one dimensional sub-ballistic random walk evolving in a parametric i.i.d. random environment. We study the asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) of the parameter based on a single observation of the…
Analyses in high energy physics aim to put the Standard Model---the commonly accepted theory---to test. For convincing conclusions, analysis methods are needed which offer an unambiguous comparison between data and theory while allowing…
In this paper we study the computation of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) in multivariate mixture models. Our first approach discretizes this infinite dimensional convex optimization problem by fixing the support…
The so-called matrix-element method (MEM) has long been used successfully as a classification tool in particle physics searches. In the presence of invisible final state particles, the traditional MEM typically assigns probabilities to an…
We study online prediction under distribution shift, where inputs arrive chronologically and outcomes are revealed only after prediction. In this setting, predictors must remain stable in quiet regimes yet adapt when regimes shift, and the…
For the tree topology, previous studies show the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of a link/path takes a polynomial form with a degree that is one less than the number of descendants connected to the link/path. Since then, the main concern…
We establish some new non-asymptotical lower bounds for deviation of regular unbiased estimation of unknown parameter from its true value in different norms, alike the classical Rao-Kramer's inequality. We show that if the new norm is…
We give an asymptotic development of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), or any other estimator defined implicitly, in a way which involves the limiting behavior of the score and its higher-order derivatives. This development, which is…
The $\beta$-model is a powerful tool for modeling large and sparse networks driven by degree heterogeneity, where many network models become infeasible due to computational challenge and network sparsity. However, existing estimation…
Quantum machine learning for spin and molecular systems faces critical challenges of scarce labeled data and computationally expensive simulations. To address these limitations, we introduce Hamiltonian-Masked Autoencoding (HMAE), a novel…
The asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) under regularity conditions is a cornerstone of statistical theory. In this paper, we give explicit upper bounds on the distributional distance between the distribution of…
This paper proposes a new estimation algorithm for the parameters of an HMM as to best account for the observed data. In this model, in addition to the observation sequence, we have \emph{partial} and \emph{noisy} access to the hidden state…
Recall the classical hypothesis testing setting with two convex sets of probability distributions P and Q. One receives either n i.i.d. samples from a distribution p in P or from a distribution q in Q and wants to decide from which set the…
Efficient Bayesian model selection relies on the model evidence or marginal likelihood, whose computation often requires evaluating an intractable integral. The harmonic mean estimator (HME) has long been a standard method of approximating…
In this paper we present Hybrid iterative Linear Quadratic Estimation (HiLQE), an optimization based offline state estimation algorithm for hybrid dynamical systems. We utilize the saltation matrix, a first order approximation of the…
Given p independent normal populations, we consider the problem of estimating the mean of those populations, that based on the observed data, give the strongest signals. We explicitly condition on the ranking of the sample means, and…
Precisely estimating out-of-sample upper quantiles is very important in risk assessment and in engineering practice for structural design to prevent a greater disaster. For this purpose, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution has…
In this paper, we study the log-likelihood function and Maximum Likelihood Estimate (MLE) for the matrix normal model for both real and complex models. We describe the exact number of samples needed to achieve (almost surely) three…
This paper proves the consistency property for the regularized maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of multivariate Hawkes processes (MHPs). It also develops an alternating minimization type algorithm (AA-iPALM) to compute the MLEs with…