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In statistical mechanics, evaluating finite-size macroscopic fluctuations typically relies on Edgeworth expansions. However, these perturbative methods append additive polynomial corrections that inevitably break down in the large deviation…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2026-04-15 Hiroki Suyari

Deep generative models parameterized by neural networks have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in unsupervised and semi-supervised learning. We extend deep generative models with auxiliary variables which improves the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-06-17 Lars Maaløe , Casper Kaae Sønderby , Søren Kaae Sønderby , Ole Winther

Let $\boldsymbol W=\{\boldsymbol W_n:n\in\mathbb N\}$ be a sequence of random vectors in $\mathbb R^d$, $d\ge 1$. This paper considers the logarithmic asymptotics of the extremes of $\boldsymbol W$, that is, for any vector $\boldsymbol…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-05-19 Kamil Marcin Kosinski , Michel Mandjes

The goal of this paper is to integrate the notions of stochastic conditional independence and variation conditional independence under a more general notion of extended conditional independence. We show that under appropriate assumptions…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-28 Panayiota Constantinou , A. Philip Dawid

In [1] a detailed analysis was given of the large-time asymptotics of the total mass of the solution to the parabolic Anderson model on a supercritical Galton-Watson random tree with an i.i.d. random potential whose marginal distribution is…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-07 Frank den Hollander , Daoyi Wang

We consider the asymptotics of various estimators based on a large sample of branching trees from a critical multi-type Galton-Watson process, as the sample size increases to infinity. The asymptotics of additive functions of trees, such as…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Zhiyi Chi

Estimations and applications of factor models often rely on the crucial condition that the number of latent factors is consistently estimated, which in turn also requires that factors be relatively strong, data are stationary and weak…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-05 Jianqing Fan , Yuan Liao

We consider the problem of testing for long-range dependence in time-varying coefficient regression models, where the covariates and errors are locally stationary, allowing complex temporal dynamics and heteroscedasticity. We develop KPSS,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-10 Lujia Bai , Weichi Wu

Evaluation of treatment effects and more general estimands is typically achieved via parametric modelling, which is unsatisfactory since model misspecification is likely. Data-adaptive model building (e.g. statistical/machine learning) is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-01-14 Oliver Hines , Oliver Dukes , Karla Diaz-Ordaz , Stijn Vansteelandt

The doubly robust (DR) estimator, which consists of two nuisance parameters, the conditional mean outcome and the logging policy (the probability of choosing an action), is crucial in causal inference. This paper proposes a DR estimator for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-22 Masahiro Kato , Shota Yasui , Kenichiro McAlinn

This article focuses on covariance estimation for multi-study data. Popular approaches employ factor-analytic terms with shared and study-specific loadings that decompose the variance into (i) a shared low-rank component, (ii)…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-26 Lorenzo Mauri , Niccolò Anceschi , David B. Dunson

Due to globalization and relaxed market regulation, we have assisted to an increasing of extremal dependence in international markets. As a consequence, several measures of tail dependence have been stated in literature in recent years,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-08-10 Helena Ferreira , Marta Ferreira

In static analysis by abstract interpretation, one often uses widening operators in order to enforce convergence within finite time to an inductive invariant. Certain widening operators, including the classical one over finite polyhedra,…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2011-09-13 David Monniaux , Julien Le Guen

We study the asymptotic behavior of the marginal expected shortfall when the two random variables are asymptotic independent but positive associated, which is modeled by the so-called tail dependent coefficient. We construct an estimator of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-09-14 Juan-Juan Cai , Eni Musta

This paper studies higher-order inference properties of nonparametric local polynomial regression methods under random sampling. We prove Edgeworth expansions for $t$ statistics and coverage error expansions for interval estimators that (i)…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-07-26 Sebastian Calonico , Matias D. Cattaneo , Max H. Farrell

Disentangled representations, where the higher level data generative factors are reflected in disjoint latent dimensions, offer several benefits such as ease of deriving invariant representations, transferability to other tasks,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-31 Abhishek Kumar , Prasanna Sattigeri , Avinash Balakrishnan

Skewness and kurtosis are fundamental statistical moments commonly used to quantify asymmetry and tail behavior in probability distributions. Despite their widespread application in statistical mechanics, condensed matter physics, and…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2025-06-23 Carlo De Michele , Samuele De Bartolo

This brief pedagogical note re-proves a simple theorem on the convergence, in $L_2$ and in probability, of time averages of non-stationary time series to the mean of expectation values. The basic condition is that the sum of covariances…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-03-22 Cosma Rohilla Shalizi

Estimating causal effects under exogeneity hinges on two key assumptions: unconfoundedness and overlap. Researchers often argue that unconfoundedness is more plausible when more covariates are included in the analysis. Less discussed is the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-06 Alexander D'Amour , Peng Ding , Avi Feller , Lihua Lei , Jasjeet Sekhon

Consider a branching random walk in which the offspring distribution and the moving law both depend on an independent and identically distributed random environment indexed by the time.For the normalised counting measure of the number of…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-01 Zhi-Qiang Gao , Quansheng Liu