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In several different fields, there is interest in analyzing the upper or lower tail quantile of the underlying distribution rather than mean or center quantile. However, the investigation of the tail quantile is difficult because of data…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-03-21 Takuma Yoshida

We consider a complex-valued linear mixture model, under discrete weakly stationary processes. We recover latent components of interest, which have undergone a linear mixing. We study asymptotic properties of a classical unmixing estimator,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-03-12 Niko Lietzén , Lauri Viitasaari , Pauliina Ilmonen

We consider a stationary stochastic volatility field $Y_vZ_v$ with $v\in\mathbb{Z}^d$, where $Z$ is regularly varying and $Y$ has lighter tails and is independent of $Z$. We make - relative to existing literature - very general assumptions…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-25 Mads Stehr , Anders Rønn-Nielsen

The conventional definition of extremality of a finite collection of sets is extended by replacing a fixed point (extremal point) in the intersection of the sets by a collection of sequences of points in the individual sets with the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-07-22 Nguyen Duy Cuong , Alexander Y. Kruger

Recurrence quantification analysis is a method for measuring the complexity of dynamical systems. Recurrence determinism is a fundamental characteristic of it, closely related to correlation sum. In this paper, we study asymptotic behavior…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2023-04-05 Michaela Mihoková

The relationship between price volatilty and a market extremum is examined using a fundamental economics model of supply and demand. By examining randomness through a microeconomic setting, we obtain the implications of randomness in the…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-07-31 Carey Caginalp , Gunduz Caginalp

The extremal behaviour of a Markov chain is typically characterized by its tail chain. For asymptotically dependent Markov chains existing formulations fail to capture the full evolution of the extreme event when the chain moves out of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-04-07 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Kirstin Strokorb , Jonathan A. Tawn , Adam Butler

In the approximate integration some inequalities between the quadratures and the integrals approximated by them are called \emph{extremalities}. On the other hand, the set of all quadratures is convex. We are trying to find possible…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2014-11-24 Teresa Rajba , Szymon Wasowicz

The classical multivariate extreme-value theory concerns the modeling of extremes in a multivariate random sample, suggesting the use of max-stable distributions. In this work, the classical theory is extended to the case where aggregated…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-03-12 Enkelejd Hashorva , Simone A. Padoan , Stefano Rizzelli

We give the cumulative distribution function of $M_n$, the maximum of a sequence of $n$ observations from an ARMA(1, 1) process. Solutions are first given in terms of repeated integrals and then for the case, where the underlying random…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-30 C. S. Withers , S. Nadarajah

Variational methods for parameter estimation are an active research area, potentially offering computationally tractable heuristics with theoretical performance bounds. We build on recent work that applies such methods to network data, and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-10-30 Peter Bickel , David Choi , Xiangyu Chang , Hai Zhang

Accurate modelling of the joint extremal dependence structure within a stationary time series is a challenging problem that is important in many applications.\ Several previous approaches to this problem are only applicable to certain types…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-03-09 Graeme Auld , Ioannis Papastathopoulos

Complex systems performing spiking dynamics are widespread in Nature. They cover from earthquakes, to neurons, variable stars, social networks, or stock markets. Understanding and characterizing their dynamics is relevant in order to detect…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-12-14 Meritxell Colet , Andrés Aragoneses

We propose a panel ARMA-GARCH model to capture the dynamics of large panel data with $N$ individuals over $T$ time periods. For this model, we provide a two-step estimation procedure to estimate the ARMA parameters and GARCH parameters…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-04-30 Bing Su , Ke Zhu

We introduce the extremal range, a local statistic for studying the spatial extent of extreme events in random fields on $\mathbb{R}^d$. Conditioned on exceedance of a high threshold at a location $s$, the extremal range at $s$ is the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-11-06 Ryan Cotsakis , Elena Di Bernardino , Thomas Opitz

The class of locally stationary processes assumes that there is a time-varying spectral representation, that is, the existence of finite second moment. We propose the $\alpha$-stable locally stationary process by modifying the innovations…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-02-15 Shu Wei Chou-Chen , Pedro A. Morettin

We establish sharp tail asymptotics for component-wise extreme values of bivariate Gaussian random vectors with arbitrary correlation between the components. We consider two scaling regimes for the tail event in which we demonstrate the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-28 Remco van der Hofstad , Harsha Honnappa

Certain extremum estimators have asymptotic distributions that are non-Gaussian, yet characterizable as the distribution of the $\argmax$ of a Gaussian process. This paper presents high-level sufficient conditions under which such…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-24 Matias D. Cattaneo , Gregory Fletcher Cox , Michael Jansson , Kenichi Nagasawa

Detecting anomalies in a temporal sequence of graphs can be applied is areas such as the detection of accidents in transport networks and cyber attacks in computer networks. Existing methods for detecting abnormal graphs can suffer from…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-03 Sevvandi Kandanaarachchi , Conrad Sanderson , Rob J. Hyndman

Stochastic equations indexed by negative integers and taking values in compact groups are studied. Extremal solutions of the equations are characterized in terms of infinite products of independent random variables. This result is applied…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-03-23 Takao Hirayama , Kouji Yano