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Related papers: The extremogram: A correlogram for extreme events

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We consider extremal eigenvalues of sparse random matrices, a class of random matrices including the adjacency matrices of Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi graphs $\mathcal{G}(N,p)$. Recently, it was shown that the leading order fluctuations of extremal…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-06-08 Jaehun Lee

The Extremal Index is a parameter that measures the intensity of clustering of rare events and is usually equal to the reciprocal of the mean of the limiting cluster size distribution. We show how to build dynamically generated stochastic…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-05-20 Miguel Abadi , Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas

For each $\lambda>0$ and every square-integrable infinitely-divisible (ID) distribution there exists at least one stationary stochastic process $t\mapsto X_t$ with the specified distribution for $X_1$ and with first-order autoregressive…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-02 Robert L Wolpert

We investigate the asymptotic properties of the integrated periodogram calculated from a sequence of indicator functions of dependent extremal events. An event in Euclidean space is extreme if it occurs far away from the origin. We use a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-16 Thomas Mikosch , Yuwei Zhao

We consider regularly varying random vectors. Our goal is to estimate in a non-parametric way some characteristics related to conditioning on an extreme event, like the tail dependence coefficient. We introduce a quasi-spectral…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-02-26 Rafał Kulik , Zhigang Tong

In many problems of classical analysis extremal configurations appear to exhibit complicated fractal structure. This makes it much harder to describe extremals and to attack such problems. Many of these problems are related to the…

Complex Variables · Mathematics 2009-10-13 D. Beliaev , S. Smirnov

We analyze the extreme value dependence of independent, not necessarily identically distributed multivariate regularly varying random vectors. More specifically, we propose estimators of the spectral measure locally at some time point and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-06-05 Holger Drees

Max-autogressive moving average (Max-ARMA) processes are powerful tools for modelling time series data with heavy-tailed behaviour; these are a non-linear version of the popular autoregressive moving average models. River flow data…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-26 Eleanor D'Arcy , Jonathan A Tawn

We give conditions to prove the existence of an Extremal Index for general stationary stochastic processes by detecting the presence of one or more underlying periodic phenomena. This theory, besides giving general useful tools to identify…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-01-20 Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Mike Todd

This paper aims at providing statistical guarantees for a kernel based estimation of time varying parameters driving the dynamic of local stationary processes. We extend the results of Dahlhaus et al. (2018) considering the local stationary…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-22 J. -M. Bardet , P. Doukhan , O. Wintenberger

We study the distribution of maxima (Extreme Value Statistics) for sequences of observables computed along orbits generated by random transformations. The underlying, deterministic, dynamical system can be regular or chaotic. In the former…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2015-06-11 Davide Faranda , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Valerio Lucarini , Giorgio Turchetti , Sandro Vaienti

We investigate the joint asymptotic behavior of so-called blocks estimator of the extremal index, that determines the mean length of clusters of extremes, based on the exceedances over different thresholds. Due to the large bias of these…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-07-06 Holger Drees

Recent work has suggested that in highly correlated systems, such as sandpiles, turbulent fluids, ignited trees in forest fires and magnetization in a ferromagnet close to a critical point, the probability distribution of a global quantity…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-01-29 Sandra Chapman , George Rowlands , Nicholas Watkins

We define a new multivariate time series model by generalizing the ARMAX process in a multivariate way. We give conditions on stationarity and analyze local dependence and domains of attraction. As a consequence of the obtained result, we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-12-11 Marta Ferreira , Helena Ferreira

We develop and generalize the theory of extreme value for non-stationary stochastic processes, mostly by weakening the uniform mixing condition that was previously used in this setting. We apply our results to non-autonomous dynamical…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-06-27 Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Sandro Vaienti

A random coefficient autoregressive process is deeply investigated in which the coefficients are correlated. First we look at the existence of a strictly stationary causal solution, we give the second-order stationarity conditions and the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-03-29 Frédéric Proïa , Marius Soltane

A coagulation process is studied in a set of random masses, in which two randomly chosen masses and the smallest mass of the set multiplied by some fixed parameter $\omega\in [-1,1]$ are iteratively added. Besides masses (or primary…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2009-11-13 Róbert Juhász

Being the limits of copulas of componentwise maxima in independent random samples, extreme-value copulas can be considered to provide appropriate models for the dependence structure between rare events. Extreme-value copulas not only arise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-12-07 Gordon Gudendorf , Johan Segers

The extremal dependence structure of a regularly varying $d$-dimensional random vector can be described by its angular measure. The standard nonparametric estimator of this measure is the empirical measure of the observed angles of the $k$…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-03-31 Holger Drees

We consider stationary stochastic processes arising from dynamical systems by evaluating a given observable along the orbits of the system. We focus on the extremal behaviour of the process, which is related to the entrance in certain…