Related papers: Likelihood-free Bayesian inference for alpha-stabl…
Likelihood-free inference provides a rigorous approach to preform Bayesian analysis using forward simulations only. The main advantage of likelihood-free methods is its ability to account for complex physical processes and observational…
The paper proposes a latent variable model for binary data coming from an unobserved heterogeneous population. The heterogeneity is taken into account by replacing the traditional assumption of Gaussian distributed factors by a finite…
The topic of deep learning has seen a surge of interest in recent years both within and outside of the field of Statistics. Deep models leverage both nonlinearity and interaction effects to provide superior predictions in many cases when…
This paper develops an asymptotic likelihood theory for triangular arrays of stationary Gaussian time series depending on a multidimensional unknown parameter. We give sufficient conditions for the associated sequence of statistical models…
Multivariate extreme-value analysis is concerned with the extremes in a multivariate random sample, that is, points of which at least some components have exceptionally large values. Mathematical theory suggests the use of max-stable models…
The aim of this paper is to show the interest in fitting features with an $\alpha$-stable distribution to classify imperfect data. The supervised pattern recognition is thus based on the theory of continuous belief functions, which is a way…
Bayesian inference in complex generative models is often obstructed by the absence of tractable likelihoods and the infeasibility of computing gradients of high-dimensional simulators. Existing likelihood-free methods for generalized…
We present Sequential Neural Likelihood (SNL), a new method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, where the likelihood is intractable but simulating data from the model is possible. SNL trains an autoregressive flow on simulated data…
Latent factor models are widely used to discover and adjust for hidden variation in modern applications. However, most methods do not fully account for uncertainty in the latent factors, which can lead to miscalibrated inferences such as…
This paper considers the problem of computing Bayesian estimates of both states and model parameters for nonlinear state-space models. Generally, this problem does not have a tractable solution and approximations must be utilised. In this…
Bayesian experimental design involves the optimal allocation of resources in an experiment, with the aim of optimising cost and performance. For implicit models, where the likelihood is intractable but sampling from the model is possible,…
Robust Bayesian analysis has been mainly devoted to detecting and measuring robustness w.r.t. the prior distribution. Many contributions in the literature aim to define suitable classes of priors which allow the computation of variations of…
We present a Bayesian framework based on a new exponential likelihood function driven by the quadratic Wasserstien metric. Compared to conventional Bayesian models based on Gaussian likelihood functions driven by the least-squares norm…
This survey reviews the existing literature on the most relevant Bayesian inference methods for univariate and multivariate GARCH models. The advantages and drawbacks of each procedure are outlined as well as the advantages of the Bayesian…
We present a method of generation of exact and explicit forms of one-sided, heavy-tailed Levy stable probability distributions g_{\alpha}(x), 0 \leq x < \infty, 0 < \alpha < 1. We demonstrate that the knowledge of one such a distribution…
The article focuses on determining the predictive uncertainty of a model on the example of atrial fibrillation detection problem by a single-lead ECG signal. To this end, the model predicts parameters of the beta distribution over class…
Bayesian neural networks with latent variables are scalable and flexible probabilistic models: They account for uncertainty in the estimation of the network weights and, by making use of latent variables, can capture complex noise patterns…
Bagging is an important technique for stabilizing machine learning models. In this paper, we derive a finite-sample guarantee on the stability of bagging for any model. Our result places no assumptions on the distribution of the data, on…
In recent years, Bayesian inference in large-scale inverse problems found in science, engineering and machine learning has gained significant attention. This paper examines the robustness of the Bayesian approach by analyzing the stability…
Multi-messenger observations of binary neutron star mergers offer a promising path towards resolution of the Hubble constant ($H_0$) tension, provided their constraints are shown to be free from systematics such as the Malmquist bias. In…