Related papers: A Guide to Modeling Credit Term Structures
Recent years have seen many advances in methods for causal structure learning from data. The empirical assessment of such methods, however, is much less developed. Motivated by this gap, we pose the following question: how can one assess,…
"What are the origins of risks?" and "How material are they?" -- these are the two most fundamental questions of any risk analysis. Quantitative Structuring -- a technology for building financial products -- provides economically meaningful…
We develop a behavioral asset pricing model in which agents trade in a market with information friction. Profit-maximizing agents switch between trading strategies in response to dynamic market conditions. Due to noisy private information…
While we would like to predict exact values, available incomplete information is rarely sufficient - usually allowing only to predict conditional probability distributions. This article discusses hierarchical correlation reconstruction…
This paper proposes a new extension of the linear failure rate (LFR) model to better capture real-world lifetime data. The model incorporates an additional shape parameter to increase flexibility. It helps model the minimum survival time…
The main goal of this paper is an application of Bayesian inference in testing the relation between risk and return on the financial instruments. On the basis of the Intertemporal CAPM model we built a general sampling model suitable in…
We present a semi-static hedging algorithm for callable interest rate derivatives under an affine, multi-factor term-structure model. With a traditional dynamic hedge, the replication portfolio needs to be updated continuously through time…
Survival analysis has become a standard approach for modelling time to default by time-varying covariates in credit risk. Unlike most existing methods that implicitly assume a stationary data-generating process, in practise, mortgage…
An resilience optimal evaluation of financial portfolios implies having plausible hypotheses about the multiple interconnections between the macroeconomic variables and the risk parameters. In this paper, we propose a graphical model for…
There is empirical evidence that recovery rates tend to go down just when the number of defaults goes up in economic downturns. This has to be taken into account in estimation of the capital against credit risk required by Basel II to cover…
Regression models for limited continuous dependent variables having a non-negligible probability of attaining exactly their limits are presented. The models differ in the number of parameters and in their flexibility. Fractional data being…
We present a dialogue on Funding Costs and Counterparty Credit Risk modeling, inclusive of collateral, wrong way risk, gap risk and possible Central Clearing implementation through CCPs. This framework is important following the fact that…
In this paper, we introduce a model that adds a non-linearity to discounting: the discounting factor may depend on the notional (i.e., discounted values are no longer linear in the notional). In the first part of the paper, we provide a…
We introduce a new numerical approximation method for functionals of factor credit portfolio models based on the theory of mod-$\phi$ convergence and mod-$\phi$ approximation schemes. The method can be understood as providing correction…
We introduce an equilibrium asset pricing model, which we build on the relationship between a novel risk measure, the Expected Downside Risk (EDR) and the expected return. On the one hand, our proposed risk measure uses a nonparametric…
In order to improve the fault diagnosis capability of multivariate statistical methods, this article introduces a fault isolation framework based on structured sparsity modeling. The developed method relies on the reconstruction based…
Assuming some regression model, it is common to study the conditional distribution of survival given covariates. Here, we consider the impact of further conditioning, specifically conditioning on a marginal survival function, known or…
Credit Default Swap (CDS) levels provide a market appreciation of companies' default risk. These derivatives are not always available, creating a need for CDS approximations. This paper offers a simple, global and transparent CDS structural…
Estimating the covariance of asset returns, i.e., the risk model, is a key component of financial portfolio construction and evaluation. Most risk modeling approaches produce a factor model that decomposes the asset variability into two…
In this paper we modify the model of Itkin, Shcherbakov and Veygman, (2019) (ISV2019), proposed for pricing Quanto Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and risky bonds, in several ways. First, it is known since the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy that the…