Related papers: Defining, Estimating and Using Credit Term Structu…
Estimation of structure, such as in variable selection, graphical modelling or cluster analysis is notoriously difficult, especially for high-dimensional data. We introduce stability selection. It is based on subsampling in combination with…
In this paper we formulate a corporate bond (CB) pricing model for deriving the term structure of default probabilities (TSDP) and the recovery rate (RR) for each pair of industry factor and credit rating grade, and these derived TSDP and…
We propose a pricing technique based on coherent risk measures, which enables one to get finer price intervals than in the No Good Deals pricing. The main idea consists in splitting a liability into several parts and selling these parts to…
Absence-of-Arbitrage (AoA) is the basic assumption underpinning derivatives pricing theory. As part of the OTC derivatives market, the CDS market not only provides a vehicle for participants to hedge and speculate on the default risks of…
Fixed income markets share many features with the equity markets. However there are significant differences as well and many attempts have been done in the past to develop specific tools which describe (and possibly forecasts) the behavior…
Autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models are primarily used to deal with data arising from times between two successive events. These models are usually specified in terms of a time-varying conditional mean or median duration. In…
We discuss two distinct approaches, for distorting risk measures of sums of dependent random variables, which preserve the property of coherence. The first, based on distorted expectations, operates on the survival function of the sum. The…
We propose a new model for pricing Quanto CDS and risky bonds. The model operates with four stochastic factors, namely: hazard rate, foreign exchange rate, domestic interest rate, and foreign interest rate, and also allows for…
We derive an arbitrage free relationship between recovery swap rates, digital default swap spreads and conventional CDS spreads, and argue that the fair forward recovery rate used in recovery swaps must contain a convexity premium over the…
We derive a closed-form approximation for the credit default swap (CDS) spread in the two-dimensional shifted square-root diffusion (SSRD) model using asymptotic coefficient expansion technique to approximate solutions of nonlinear partial…
We develop and test a fast and accurate semi-analytical formula for single-name default swaptions in the context of a shifted square root jump diffusion (SSRJD) default intensity model. The model can be calibrated to the CDS term structure…
We explore the statistical and economic importance of restrictions on the dynamics of risk compensation from the perspective of a real-time Bayesian learner who predicts bond excess returns using dynamic term structure models (DTSMs). The…
The research presented in this work is motivated by some recent papers regarding hedging and valuation of financial securities subject to funding costs, collateralization and counterparty credit risk. Our goal is to provide a sound…
CDS options allow investors to express a view on spread volatility and obtain a wider range of payoffs than are possible with vanilla CDS. We give a detailed exposition of different types of single-name CDS option, including options with…
Covered bonds are a specific example of senior secured debt. If the issuer of the bonds defaults the proceeds of the assets in the cover pool are used for their debt service. If in this situation the cover pool proceeds do not suffice for…
We review different approaches for measuring the impact of liquidity on CDS prices. We start with reduced form models incorporating liquidity as an additional discount rate. We review Chen, Fabozzi and Sverdlove (2008) and Buhler and Trapp…
The paper explores a different variation of combined regression strategy to calculate the conditional survival function. We use regression based weak learners to create the proposed ensemble technique. The proposed combined regression…
This study deals with the pricing and hedging of single-tranche collateralized debt obligations (STCDOs). We specify an affine two-factor model in which a catastrophic risk component is incorporated. Apart from being analytically tractable,…
Credit risk scorecards are logistic regression models, fitted to large and complex data sets, employed by the financial industry to model the probability of default of a potential customer. In order to ensure that a scorecard remains a…
This paper addresses a critical inconsistency in models of the term structure of interest rates (TSIR), where zero-coupon bonds are priced under risk-neutral measures distinct from those used in equity markets. We propose a unified TSIR…