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In the context of an incomplete market with a Brownian filtration and a fixed finite time horizon, this paper proves that for general dynamic convex risk measures, the buyer's and seller's risk indifference prices of a contingent claim are…
We develop an averaging approach to robust risk measurement under payoff uncertainty. Instead of taking a worst-case value over an uncertainty neighborhood, we weight nearby payoffs more heavily under a chosen metric and average the…
The left tail of the implied volatility skew, coming from quotes on out-of-the-money put options, can be thought to reflect the market's assessment of the risk of a huge drop in stock prices. We analyze how this market information can be…
Equivalent characterizations of multiportfolio time consistency are deduced for closed convex and coherent set-valued risk measures on $L^p(\Omega,\mathcal F, P; R^d)$ with image space in the power set of $L^p(\Omega,\mathcal F_t,P;R^d)$.…
We review the nature of some well-known phenomena such as volatility smiles, convexity adjustments and parallel derivative markets. We propose that the market is incomplete and postulate the existence of intrinsic risks in every contingent…
We introduce a new regression method that relates the mean of an outcome variable to covariates, under the "adverse condition" that a distress variable falls in its tail. This allows to tailor classical mean regressions to adverse…
We establish a profound connection between coherent risk measures, a prominent object in quantitative finance, and uniform integrability, a fundamental concept in probability theory. Instead of working with absolute values of random…
In this paper, we develop a novel unified methodology for performance and robustness analysis of linear dynamical networks. We introduce the notion of systemic measures for the class of first--order linear consensus networks. We classify…
In this paper, we present a unified framework for decision making under uncertainty. Our framework is based on the composite of two risk measures, where the inner risk measure accounts for the risk of decision given the exact distribution…
We propose a unified structural credit risk model incorporating both insolvency and illiquidity risks, in order to investigate how a firm's default probability depends on the liquidity risk associated with its financing structure. We assume…
Methods for measuring convexity defects of compacts in R^n abound. However, none of the those measures seems to take into account continuity. Continuity in convexity measure is essential for optimization, stability analysis, global…
We develop a statistical framework for risk estimation, inspired by the axiomatic theory of risk measures. Coherent risk estimators -- functionals of P\&L samples inheriting the economic properties of risk measures -- are defined and…
In this paper we study two classes of imprecise previsions, which we termed convex and centered convex previsions, in the framework of Walley's theory of imprecise previsions. We show that convex previsions are related with a concept of…
The instability of the financial system as experienced in recent years and in previous periods is often linked to credit defaults, i.e., to the failure of obligors to make promised payments. Given the large number of credit contracts, this…
In this article we show how to analyze the covariation of bond prices nonparametrically and robustly, staying consistent with a general no-arbitrage setting. This is, in particular, motivated by the problem of identifying the number of…
We study the problem of portfolio insurance from the point of view of a fund manager, who guarantees to the investor that the portfolio value at maturity will be above a fixed threshold. If, at maturity, the portfolio value is below the…
We define and develop an approach for risk budgeting allocation - a risk diversification portfolio strategy - where risk is measured using a dynamic time-consistent risk measure. For this, we introduce a notion of dynamic risk contributions…
We propose a new definition for tameness within the model of security prices as It\^o processes that is risk-aware. We give a new definition for arbitrage and characterize it. We then prove a theorem that can be seen as an extension of the…
We show that a wide class of risk-constrained nonconvex functional optimization problems exhibit strong duality, regardless of nonconvexity. We develop two novel results under distinct sets of assumptions, establishing strong duality over…
Residual coherence is a graphical tool for selecting potential second-order interaction terms as functions of a single time series and its lags. This paper extends the notion of residual coherence to account for interaction terms of…