Related papers: Defining, Estimating and Using Credit Term Structu…
Scalar dynamic risk measures for univariate positions in continuous time are commonly represented as backward stochastic differential equations. In the multivariate setting, dynamic risk measures have been defined and studied as families of…
In this paper we present a theoretical framework for studying coherent acceptability indices in a dynamic setup. We study dynamic coherent acceptability indices and dynamic coherent risk measures, and we establish a duality between them. We…
Credit risk stress testing has become an important risk management device which is used both by banks internally and by regulators. Stress testing is complex because it essentially means projecting a bank's full balance sheet conditional on…
Transition risk can be defined as the business-risk related to the enactment of green policies, aimed at driving the society towards a sustainable and low-carbon economy. In particular, the value of certain firms' assets can be lower…
We introduce the concept of partial law invariance, generalizing the concepts of law invariance and probabilistic sophistication widely used in decision theory, as well as statistical and financial applications. This new concept is…
The two main approaches in credit risk are the structural approach pioneered in Merton (1974) and the reduced-form framework proposed in Jarrow & Turnbull (1995) and in Artzner & Delbaen (1995). The goal of this article is to provide a…
Volatility is the canonical measure of financial risk, a role largely inherited from Modern Portfolio Theory. Yet, its universality rests on restrictive efficiency assumptions that render volatility, at best, an incomplete proxy for true…
This paper presents the experimental process and results of SVM, Gradient Boosting, and an Attention-GRU Hybrid model in predicting the Implied Volatility of rolled-over five-year spread contracts of credit default swaps (CDS) on European…
Credit ratings are widely used by investors as a screening device. We introduce and study several natural notions of risk consistency that promote prudent investment decisions in the framework of Choquet rating criteria. Three closely…
The forecasting of the credit default risk has been an important research field for several decades. Traditionally, logistic regression has been widely recognized as a solution due to its accuracy and interpretability. As a recent trend,…
We explore credit risk pricing by modeling equity as a call option and debt as the difference between the firm's asset value and a put option, following the structural framework of the Merton model. Our approach proceeds in two stages:…
By means of the techniques of Boolean valued analysis, we provide a transfer principle between duality theory of classical convex risk measures and duality theory of conditional risk measures. Namely, a conditional risk measure can be…
We address the so-called calibration problem which consists of fitting in a tractable way a given model to a specified term structure like, e.g., yield or default probability curves. Time-homogeneous jump-diffusions like Vasicek or…
Explicitly taking into account the risk incurred when borrowing at a shorter tenor versus lending at a longer tenor ("roll-over risk"), we construct a stochastic model framework for the term structure of interest rates in which a frequency…
Covered bonds are a specific example of senior secured debt. If the issuer of the bonds defaults the proceeds of the assets in the cover pool are used for their debt service. If in this situation the cover pool proceeds do not suffice for…
We introduce the concept of no-arbitrage in a credit risk market under ambiguity considering an intensity-based framework. We assume the default intensity is not exactly known but lies between an upper and lower bound. By means of the…
This paper motivates the views that for complex systems, risk should be controlled by enforcing constraints in a modular way at different system levels, that the constraints can be expressed as assurance contracts and that acceptable risk…
Credit Valuation Adjustment is a balance sheet item which is nowadays subject to active risk management by specialized traders. However, one of the most important risk factors, which is the vector of default intensities of the counterparty,…
In recent years, it has become apparent that an isolated microprudential approach to capital adequacy requirements of individual institutions is insufficient. It can increase the homogeneity of the financial system and ultimately the cost…
In the presence of model risk, it is well-established to replace classical expected values by worst-case expectations over all models within a fixed radius from a given reference model. This is the "robustness" approach. We show that…