Related papers: Evolutionary estimation of a Coupled Markov Chain …
A general method to construct recombinant tree approximations for stochastic volatility models is developed and applied to the Heston model for stock price dynamics. In this application, the resulting approximation is a four tuple Markov…
The Future Elderly Model and related microsimulations are modeled as Markov chains. These simulations rely on longitudinal survey data to estimate their transition models. The use of survey data presents several incomplete data problems,…
There is a rich literature for modeling binary and polychotomous responses. However, existing methods are inadequate for handling combinatorial responses, where each response is an integer array under additional constraints. Such data are…
We study the continuous-time evolution of the recombination equation of population genetics. This evolution is given by a differential equation that acts on a product probability space, and its solution can be described by a Markov chain on…
The AMP Markov property is a recently proposed alternative Markov property for chain graphs. In the case of continuous variables with a joint multivariate Gaussian distribution, it is the AMP rather than the earlier introduced LWF Markov…
We propose a model of random walks on weighted graphs where the weights are interval valued, and connect it to reversible imprecise Markov chains. While the theory of imprecise Markov chains is now well established, this is a first attempt…
Stochastic processes find applications in modelling systems in a variety of disciplines. A large number of stochastic models considered are Markovian in nature. It is often observed that higher order Markov processes can model the data…
We consider deep multivariate models for heterogeneous collections of random variables. In the context of computer vision, such collections may e.g. consist of images, segmentations, image attributes, and latent variables. When developing…
We present a novel approach to detecting and utilizing symmetries in probabilistic graphical models with two main contributions. First, we present a scalable approach to computing generating sets of permutation groups representing the…
We present a novel approach to detecting and utilizing symmetries in probabilistic graphical models with two main contributions. First, we present a scalable approach to computing generating sets of permutation groups representing the…
Probabilistic model checking can provide formal guarantees on the behavior of stochastic models relating to a wide range of quantitative properties, such as runtime, energy consumption or cost. But decision making is typically with respect…
In many spatial and spatial-temporal models, and more generally in models with complex dependencies, it may be too difficult to carry out full maximum likelihood (ML) analysis. Remedies include the use of pseudo-likelihood (PL) and…
Many problems in the physical sciences, machine learning, and statistical inference necessitate sampling from a high-dimensional, multi-modal probability distribution. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, the ubiquitous tool for this…
Multivariate normal mixtures provide a flexible model for high-dimensional data. They are widely used in statistical genetics, statistical finance, and other disciplines. Due to the unboundedness of the likelihood function, classical…
In this work, we study a natural nonparametric estimator of the transition probability matrices of a finite controlled Markov chain. We consider an offline setting with a fixed dataset, collected using a so-called logging policy. We develop…
We propose a new Markov chain Monte Carlo method in which trial configurations are generated by evolving a state, sampled from a prior distribution, using a Markov transition matrix. We present two prototypical algorithms and derive their…
Banks and financial institutions all over the world manage portfolios containing tens of thousands of customers. Not all customers are high credit-worthy, and many possess varying degrees of risk to the Bank or financial institutions that…
Evolutionary algorithms have been widely used for a range of stochastic optimization problems in order to address complex real-world optimization problems. We consider the knapsack problem where the profits involve uncertainties. Such a…
In this paper we consider a reduced-form intensity-based credit risk model with a hidden Markov state process. A filtering method is proposed for extracting the underlying state given the observation processes. The method may be applied to…
Complex biological processes are usually experimented along time among a collection of individuals. Longitudinal data are then available and the statistical challenge is to better understand the underlying biological mechanisms. The…