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Our goal is to develop a partial ordering method for comparing stochastic choice functions on the basis of their individual rationality. To this end, we assign to any stochastic choice function a one-parameter class of deterministic choice…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-12-13 Efe A. Ok , Gerelt Tserenjigmid

We introduce state-space models where the functionals of the observational and the evolutionary equations are unknown, and treated as random functions evolving with time. Thus, our model is nonparametric and generalizes the traditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-02-24 Anurag Ghosh , Soumalya Mukhopadhyay , Sandipan Roy , Sourabh Bhattacharya

Gaussian processes have become a popular tool for nonparametric regression because of their flexibility and uncertainty quantification. However, they often use stationary kernels, which limit the expressiveness of the model and may be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-17 Zachary James , Joseph Guinness

We consider the semi-parametric estimation of a scale parameter of a one-dimensional Gaussian process with known smoothness. We suggest an estimator based on quadratic variations and on the moment method. We provide asymptotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-01-22 Jean-Marc Azaïs , François Bachoc , Agnès Lagnoux , Thi Mong Ngoc Nguyen

In this paper, the problem of state estimation, in the context of both filtering and smoothing, for nonlinear state-space models is considered. Due to the nonlinear nature of the models, the state estimation problem is generally intractable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-11-24 Jarrad Courts , Adrian Wills , Thomas B. Schön

In this work, we consider the problem of steering the first two moments of the uncertain state of an unknown discrete-time stochastic nonlinear system to a given terminal distribution in finite time. Toward that goal, first, a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-04-05 Alexandros Tsolovikos , Efstathios Bakolas

This tutorial aims to provide an intuitive introduction to Gaussian process regression (GPR). GPR models have been widely used in machine learning applications due to their representation flexibility and inherent capability to quantify…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-30 Jie Wang

State-space models have been successfully used for more than fifty years in different areas of science and engineering. We present a procedure for efficient variational Bayesian learning of nonlinear state-space models based on sparse…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2014-11-04 Roger Frigola , Yutian Chen , Carl E. Rasmussen

Random fields are useful mathematical tools for representing natural phenomena with complex dependence structures in space and/or time. In particular, the Gaussian random field is commonly used due to its attractive properties and…

This paper investigates the approximation of Gaussian random variables in Banach spaces, focusing on the high-probability bounds for the approximation of Gaussian random variables using finitely many observations. We derive non-asymptotic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-08-28 Daniel Winkle , Ingo Steinwart , Bernard Haasdonk

This article introduces exact testing procedures on the mean of a Gaussian process $X$ derived from the outcomes of $\ell_1$-minimization over the space of complex valued measures. The process $X$ can be thought as the sum of two terms:…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-03 Jean-Marc Azaïs , Yohann De Castro , Stéphane Mourareau

A method for sequential inference of the fixed parameters of a dynamic latent Gaussian models is proposed and evaluated that is based on the iterated Laplace approximation. The method provides a useful trade-off between computational…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-09-29 Tiep Mai , Simon Wilson

A family of consistent tests, derived from a characterization of the probability generating function, is proposed for assessing Poissonity against a wide class of count distributions, which includes some of the most frequently adopted…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-11 Antonio Di Noia , Marzia Marcheselli , Caterina Pisani , Luca Pratelli

The question whether a time series behaves as a random walk or as a station- ary process is an important and delicate problem, particularly arising in financial statistics, econometrics, and engineering. This paper studies the problem to…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-01-13 Ansgar Steland

We consider marked empirical processes indexed by a randomly projected functional covariate to construct goodness-of-fit tests for the functional linear model with scalar response. The test statistics are built from continuous functionals…

This paper considers approximate smoothing for discretely observed non-linear stochastic differential equations. The problem is tackled by developing methods for linearising stochastic differential equations with respect to an arbitrary…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-01-21 Filip Tronarp , Simo Särkkä

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are widely employed in control and learning because of their principled treatment of uncertainty. However, tracking uncertainty for iterative, multi-step predictions in general leads to an analytically intractable…

This paper develops the theory and methods for modeling a stationary count time series via Gaussian transformations. The techniques use a latent Gaussian process and a distributional transformation to construct stationary series with very…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-07-20 Yisu Jia , Stefanos Kechagias , James Livsey , Robert Lund , Vladas Pipiras

We introduce the concept of numerical Gaussian processes, which we define as Gaussian processes with covariance functions resulting from temporal discretization of time-dependent partial differential equations. Numerical Gaussian processes,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-03-31 Maziar Raissi , Paris Perdikaris , George Em Karniadakis

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-18 Xuhui Fan , Edwin V. Bonilla , Terence J. O'Kane , Scott A. Sisson