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The paper is split in two parts: in the first part, we construct the exact likelihood for a discretely observed rough differential equation, driven by a piecewise linear path. In the second part, we use this likelihood in order to construct…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-10 Anastasia Papavasiliou , Kasia B. Taylor

This paper presents a new probabilistic generative model for image segmentation, i.e. the task of partitioning an image into homogeneous regions. Our model is grounded on a mid-level image representation, called a region tree, in which…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-15 Shell X. Hu , Christopher K. I. Williams , Sinisa Todorovic

We consider a unified framework of sequential change-point detection and hypothesis testing modeled by means of hidden Markov chains. One observes a sequence of random variables whose distributions are functionals of a hidden Markov chain.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2013-12-13 Savas Dayanik , Kazutoshi Yamazaki

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are often used for approximate inference inside learning, but their slow mixing can be difficult to diagnose and the approximations can seriously degrade learning. To alleviate these issues, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-02-25 Jacob Steinhardt , Percy Liang

We consider state-aggregation schemes for Markov chains from an information-theoretic perspective. Specifically, we consider aggregating the states of a Markov chain such that the mutual information of the aggregated states separated by T…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-08-23 Mauro Faccin , Michael T. Schaub , Jean-Charles Delvenne

I propose a large class of stochastic Markov processes associated with probability distributions analogous to that of lattice gauge theory with dynamical fermions. The construction incorporates the idea of approximate spectral split of the…

High Energy Physics - Lattice · Physics 2015-06-25 Ivan Horvath

This paper proposes a linear categorical random coefficient model, in which the random coefficients follow parametric categorical distributions. The distributional parameters are identified based on a linear recurrence structure of moments…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-03-01 Zhan Gao , M. Hashem Pesaran

Computing optimal conditional reachability probabilities in Markov decision processes (MDPs) is tractable by a reduction to reachability probabilities. Yet, this reduction yields cyclic, challenging MDPs that are often notoriously hard to…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Milan Češka , Sebastian Junges , Luko van der Maas , Filip Macák , Tim Quatmann

We consider discrete graphical models Markov with respect to a graph $G$ and propose two distributed marginal methods to estimate the maximum likelihood estimate of the canonical parameter of the model. Both methods are based on a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2013-10-22 Helene Massam , Nanwei Wang

Given $n>0$, let $S\subset [0,1]^2$ be a set of $n$ points, chosen uniformly at random. Let $R\cup B$ be a random partition, or coloring, of $S$ in which each point of $S$ is included in $R$ uniformly at random with probability $1/2$.…

Computational Geometry · Computer Science 2025-04-02 Josué Corujo , Paul Horn , Pablo Pérez-Lantero

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) requires to evaluate the full data likelihood at different parameter values iteratively and is often computationally infeasible for large data sets. In this paper, we propose to approximate the log-likelihood…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-26 Guanyu Hu , HaiYing Wang

Due to the increasing complexity and interconnectedness of different components in modern automotive software systems there is a great number of interactions between these system components and their environment. These interactions result…

Applications · Statistics 2025-03-11 Bojan Lukić , Thorben Knust , Andreas Rausch

Binary segmentation is the classic greedy algorithm which recursively splits a sequential data set by optimizing some loss or likelihood function. Binary segmentation is widely used for changepoint detection in data sets measured over space…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-14 Toby Dylan Hocking

In this work we consider time series with a finite number of discrete point changes. We assume that the data in each segment follows a different probability density functions (pdf). We focus on the case where the data in all segments are…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Ali Mohammad-Djafari , Olivier Feron

Recently, semantic video segmentation gained high attention especially for supporting autonomous driving systems. Deep learning methods made it possible to implement real time segmentation and object identification algorithms on videos.…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-10-30 Beril Sirmacek , Nicolò Botteghi , Santiago Sanchez Escalonilla Plaza

The following learning problem arises naturally in various applications: Given a finite sample from a categorical or count time series, can we learn a function of the sample that (nearly) maximizes the probability of correctly guessing the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-27 J. -R. Chazottes , S. Gallo , D. Takahashi

Considering the issue of estimating small probabilities p, ie. measuring a rare domain F = {x | g(x) > q} with respect to the distribution of a random vector X, Multilevel Splitting strategies (also called Subset Simulation) aim at writing…

Computation · Statistics 2015-09-10 Clément Walter

In simulation-based inferences for partially observed Markov process models (POMP), the by-product of the Monte Carlo filtering is an approximation of the log likelihood function. Recently, iterated filtering [14, 13] has originally been…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-26 Dao Nguyen

Image segmentation is the process of partitioning the image into significant regions easier to analyze. Nowadays, segmentation has become a necessity in many practical medical imaging methods as locating tumors and diseases. Hidden Markov…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-03-14 EL-Hachemi Guerrout , Samy Ait-Aoudia , Dominique Michelucci , Ramdane Mahiou

In the paper, we study a new rate of convergence estimate for homogeneous discrete-time nonlinear Markov chains based on the Markov-Dobrushin condition. This result generalizes the convergence estimates for any positive number of transition…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-10-22 Aleksandr A. Shchegolev
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