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Related papers: Growth Model for Vote Distributions in Elections

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The voter model is a classical interacting particle system modelling how consensus is formed across a network. We analyse the time to consensus for the voter model when the underlying graph is a subcritical scale-free random graph.…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-02 John Fernley , Marcel Ortgiese

Opinion evolution and judgment revision are mediated through social influence. Based on a large crowdsourced in vitro experiment (n=861), it is shown how a consensus model can be used to predict opinion evolution in online collective…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2016-09-28 Corentin Vande Kerckhove , Samuel Martin , Pascal Gend , Peter J. Rentfrow , Julien M. Hendrickx , Vincent D. Blondel

Political polarization has been a subject that has attracted many studies in recent years. We have developed an opinion dynamics model with affective homophily effect and national social norm effect to describe this phenomenon. The time…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-09-03 Zhang Xiaoming , Hu Yuzhong , Zhang Yiming

Images become an important and prevalent way to express users' activities, opinions and emotions. In a social network, individual emotions may be influenced by others, in particular by close friends. We focus on understanding how users…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2014-01-20 Xiaohui Wang , Jia Jia , Lianhong Cai , Jie Tang

Social media has been a paramount arena for election campaigns for political actors. While many studies have been paying attention to the political campaigns related to partisanship, politicians also can conduct different campaigns…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-04-05 Taichi Murayama , Akira Matsui , Kunihiro Miyazaki , Yasuko Matsubara , Yasushi Sakurai

Social influence is the process by which individuals adapt their opinion, revise their beliefs, or change their behavior as a result of social interactions with other people. In our strongly interconnected society, social influence plays a…

Physics and Society · Physics 2013-11-15 Mehdi Moussaid , Juliane E. Kaemmer , Pantelis P. Analytis , Hansjoerg Neth

In the United States electoral system, a candidate is elected indirectly by winning a majority of electoral votes cast by individual states, the election usually being decided by the votes cast by a small number of "swing states" where the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2012-11-06 G. C. Levine , B. Caravan , J. E. Cerise

We survey some recent developments on the mathematical modeling of opinion dynamics. After an introduction on opinion modeling through interacting multi-agent systems described by partial differential equations of kinetic type, we focus our…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-07-21 Giacomo Albi , Lorenzo Pareschi , Giuseppe Toscani , Mattia Zanella

We examine two aspects of the mathematical basis for two-tier voting systems, such as that of the Council of the European Union. These aspects concern the use of square-root weights and the choice of quota. Square-root weights originate in…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-05-16 Geoffrey R. Grimmett

In this paper we extend some recent results on an operatorial approach to the description of alliances between political parties interacting among themselves and with a basin of electors. In particular, we propose and compare three…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-05-24 F. Bagarello , F. Gargano

There is growing evidence of systematic attempts to influence democratic elections by controlled and digitally organized dissemination of fake news. This raises the question of the intrinsic robustness of democratic electoral processes…

Physics and Society · Physics 2024-01-03 Glory M. Givi , Robin Delabays , Matthieu Jacquemet , Philippe Jacquod

In this paper, we discuss the possible generalizations of the Social Influence with Recurrent Mobility (SIRM) model developed in Phys. Rev. Lett. 112, 158701 (2014). Although the SIRM model worked approximately satisfying when US election…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-06-27 Jérôme Michaud , Attila Szilva

We present a model for quantitatively identifying swing voters in congressional elections. This is achieved by predicting an individual voter's likelihood to vote and an individual voter's likelihood to vote for a given party, if he votes.…

Physics and Society · Physics 2014-05-21 Steven Ambadjes

The median voter theorem has long been the default model of voter behavior and candidate choice. While contemporary work on the distribution of political opinion has emphasized polarization and an increasing gap between the "left" and the…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-03-25 Matthew I. Jones , Antonio D. Sirianni , Feng Fu

Democracies employ elections at various scales to select officials at the corresponding levels of administration. The geographical distribution of political opinion, the policy issues delegated to each level, and the multilevel interactions…

Applications · Statistics 2022-11-03 Sihao Huang , Alexander F. Siegenfeld , Andrew Gelman

We consider a model of a random media with fixed and finite memory time with abrupt losses of memory (renovation model). Within the memory intervals we can observe either amplification or oscillation of the vector field in a given particle.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2023-04-26 E. A. Illarionov , D. D. Sokoloff

We present a model of voting behaviour based on a version of aggregated overdispersed multinomial distributions; relative to a similar model by \citet{BP86}, our model is based on more realistic assumptions and free from certain…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-11-10 Antonio Forcina

We investigate an extension of the voter model in which voters are equipped with an individual inertia to change their opinion. This inertia depends on the persistence time of a voter's current opinion (ageing). We focus on the case of only…

Physics and Society · Physics 2009-04-07 Hans-Ulrich Stark , Claudio J. Tessone , Frank Schweitzer

This paper presents an interesting experimental example of voter-model statistics in biology. In recent work on mouse tail-skin, where proliferating cells are confined to a two-dimensional layer, we showed that cells proliferate and…

Biological Physics · Physics 2009-11-13 Allon M. Klein , David P. Doupe , Philip H. Jones , Benjamin D. Simons

We consider a simple and altruistic multiagent system in which the agents are eager to perform a collective task but where their real engagement depends on the willingness to perform the task of other influential agents. We model this…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2014-03-10 Xavier Molinero , Fabián Riquelme , Maria Serna