Related papers: Market Implied Probability Distributions and Bayes…

We develop a method to study the implied volatility for exotic options and volatility derivatives with European payoffs such as VIX options. Our approach, based on Malliavin calculus techniques, allows us to describe the properties of the…

In this paper, we study the statistical properties of the moneyness scaling transformation by Leung and Sircar (2015). This transformation adjusts the moneyness coordinate of the implied volatility smile in an attempt to remove the…

Volatility prediction--an essential concept in financial markets--has recently been addressed using sentiment analysis methods. We investigate the sentiment of annual disclosures of companies in stock markets to forecast volatility. We…

Mixed modeling of extreme values and random effects is relatively unexplored topic. Computational difficulties in using the maximum likelihood method for mixed models and the fact that maximum likelihood method uses available data and does…

This paper introduces a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) with stochastic volatility-in-mean and time-varying skewness. Unlike previous approaches, the proposed model allows both volatility and skewness to directly affect macroeconomic…

Gaussian copulas are widely used in the industry to correlate two random variables when there is no prior knowledge about the co-dependence between them. The perturbed Gaussian copula approach allows introducing the skew information of both…

We correct a mistake in the published version of our paper. Our new conclusion is that the "implied leverage effect" for single stocks is underestimated by option markets for short maturities and overestimated for long maturities, while it…

We study Bayesian linear regression models with skew-symmetric scale mixtures of normal error distributions. These kinds of models can be used to capture departures from the usual assumption of normality of the errors in terms of heavy…

The family of multivariate skew-normal distributions has many interesting properties. It is shown here that these hold for a general class of skew-elliptical distributions. For this class, several stochastic representations are established…

This paper proposes factor stochastic volatility models with skew error distributions. The generalized hyperbolic skew t-distribution is employed for common-factor processes and idiosyncratic shocks. Using a Bayesian sparsity modeling…

The skew-normal and the skew-$t$ distributions are parametric families which are currently under intense investigation since they provide a more flexible formulation compared to the classical normal and $t$ distributions by introducing a…

We propose an affine extension of the Linear Gaussian term structure Model (LGM) such that the instantaneous covariation of the factors is given by an affine process on semidefinite positive matrices. First, we set up the model and present…

Azzalini & Dalla Valle (1996) have recently discussed the multivariate skew-normal distribution which extends the class of normal distributions by the addition of a shape parameter. The first part of the present paper examines further…

For the extended skew-normal distribution, which represents an extension of the normal (or Gaussian) distribution, we focus on the properties of the log-likelihood function and derived quantities in the the bivariate case. Specifically, we…

Linear mixed effects models are widely used in statistical modelling. We consider a mixed effects model with Bayesian variable selection in the random effects using spike-and-slab priors and developed a variational Bayes inference scheme…

We investigate how price variations of a stock are transformed into profits and losses (P&Ls) of a trend following strategy. In the frame of a Gaussian model, we derive the probability distribution of P&Ls and analyze its moments (mean,…

A new stochastic theory of a foreign exchange markets dynamics is developed. As a result we have the new probability distribution which well describes statistical and scaling dependencies ''experimentally'' observed in foreign exchange…

This study presents contemporaneous modeling of asset return and price range within the framework of stochastic volatility with leverage. A new representation of the probability density function for the price range is provided, and its…

For two vast families of mixture distributions and a given prior, we provide unified representations of posterior and predictive distributions. Model applications presented include bivariate mixtures of Gamma distributions labelled as…

It is shown that superpositions of path integrals with arbitrary Hamiltonians and different scaling parameters v ("variances") obey the Chapman-Kolmogorov relation for Markovian processes if and only if the corresponding smearing…