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Related papers: Priors for the Bayesian star paradox

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The `star paradox' in phylogenetics is the tendency for a particular resolved tree to be sometimes strongly supported even when the data is generated by an unresolved (`star') tree. There have been contrary claims as to whether this…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 Mike Steel , Frederick A. Matsen

We review common situations in Bayesian latent variable models where the prior distribution that a researcher specifies differs from the prior distribution used during estimation. These situations can arise from the positive definite…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-11-19 Edgar C. Merkle , Oludare Ariyo , Sonja D. Winter , Mauricio Garnier-Villarreal

We present a survey of some of our recent results on Bayesian nonparametric inference for a multitude of stochastic processes. The common feature is that the prior distribution in the cases considered is on suitable sets of piecewise…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-06-04 Denis Belomestny , Frank van der Meulen , Peter Spreij

In a given problem, the Bayesian statistical paradigm requires the specification of a prior distribution that quantifies relevant information about the unknowns of main interest external to the data. In cases where little such information…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-11 Alexander Terenin , David Draper

This paper discusses the dual interpretation of the Jeffreys--Lindley's paradox associated with Bayesian posterior probabilities and Bayes factors, both as a differentiation between frequentist and Bayesian statistics and as a pointer to…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-12-02 Christian Robert

We introduce a new class of priors for Bayesian hypothesis testing, which we name "cake priors". These priors circumvent Bartlett's paradox (also called the Jeffreys-Lindley paradox); the problem associated with the use of diffuse priors…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-10-26 John T. Ormerod , Michael Stewart , Weichang Yu , Sarah E. Romanes

The purpose of this paper is to present a mathematical theory that can be used as a foundation for statistics that include improper priors. This theory includes improper laws in the initial axioms and has in particular Bayes theorem as a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-11 Gunnar Taraldsen , Bo H. Lindqvist

In 1957, Lindley published "A statistical paradox" in Biometrika, revealing a fundamental conflict between frequentist and Bayesian inference as sample size approaches infinity. We present a new paradox of a different kind: a conflict…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-01 Miodrag M. Lovric

Bayesian inference --- although becoming popular in physics and chemistry --- is hampered up to now by the vagueness of its notion of prior probability. Some of its supporters argue that this vagueness is the unavoidable consequence of the…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2008-02-03 O. -A. Al-Hujaj , H. L. Harney

The distribution of masses for neutron stars is analyzed using the Bayesian statistical inference, evaluating the likelihood of proposed gaussian peaks by using fifty-four measured points obtained in a variety of systems. The results…

Solar and Stellar Astrophysics · Physics 2015-05-27 R. Valentim , E. Rangel , J. E. Horvath

The well-known Bayes theorem assumes that a posterior distribution is a probability distribution. However, the posterior distribution may no longer be a probability distribution if an improper prior distribution (non-probability measure)…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2018-08-28 Hyungsuk Tak , Sujit K. Ghosh , Justin A. Ellis

In Bayesian statistics, the choice of prior distribution is often debatable, especially if prior knowledge is limited or data are scarce. In imprecise probability, sets of priors are used to accurately model and reflect prior knowledge.…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-25 Gero Walter , Frank P. A. Coolen

The neutron star equation of state is now being constrained from a diverse set of multi-messenger data, including gravitational waves from binary neutron star mergers, X-ray observations of the neutron star radius, and many types of…

High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena · Physics 2021-02-24 Carolyn Raithel , Feryal Ozel , Dimitrios Psaltis

We consider the specification of prior distributions for Bayesian model comparison, focusing on regression-type models. We propose a particular joint specification of the prior distribution across models so that sensitivity of posterior…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-07-25 Petros Dellaportas , Jonathan J. Forster , Ioannis Ntzoufras

The prior distribution on parameters of a sampling distribution is the usual starting point for Bayesian uncertainty quantification. In this paper, we present a different perspective which focuses on missing observations as the source of…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-23 Edwin Fong , Chris Holmes , Stephen G. Walker

We revisit the flatland paradox proposed by \cite{ston1976} which is an example of non-conglomerability. The aim of the paper is to show that the improperness of the prior is not directly involved in the inconsistency. First, we show that…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-04-10 Pierre Druilhet

A key sticking point of Bayesian analysis is the choice of prior distribution, and there is a vast literature on potential defaults including uniform priors, Jeffreys' priors, reference priors, maximum entropy priors, and weakly informative…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-11-22 Andrew Gelman , Daniel Simpson , Michael Betancourt

The marginalization paradox involves a disagreement between two Bayesians who use two different procedures for calculating a posterior in the presence of an improper prior. We show that the argument used to justify the procedure of one of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Timothy C. Wallstrom

Bayesian hypothesis testing is re-examined from the perspective of an a priori assessment of the test statistic distribution under the alternative. By assessing the distribution of an observable test statistic, rather than prior parameter…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-28 Hedibert F. Lopes , Nicholas G. Polson

This article extends the framework of Bayesian inverse problems in infinite-dimensional parameter spaces, as advocated by Stuart (Acta Numer. 19:451--559, 2010) and others, to the case of a heavy-tailed prior measure in the family of stable…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-05-23 T. J. Sullivan
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