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Exact parameter and trajectory inference in state-space models is typically achieved by one of two methods: particle marginal Metropolis-Hastings (PMMH) or particle Gibbs (PGibbs). PMMH is a pseudo-marginal algorithm which jointly proposes…

Computation · Statistics 2025-06-03 Adrien Corenflos

We consider the approximation of expectations with respect to the distribution of a latent Markov process given noisy measurements. This is known as the smoothing problem and is often approached with particle and Markov chain Monte Carlo…

Computation · Statistics 2019-02-06 Lawrence Middleton , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet , Pierre E. Jacob

High-dimensional limit theorems have been shown useful to derive tuning rules for finding the optimal scaling in random-walk Metropolis algorithms. The assumptions under which weak convergence results are proved are however restrictive: the…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-16 Sebastian M Schmon , Philippe Gagnon

Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is a general computational approach to Bayesian inference for general state space models. Our article scales up PMCMC in terms of the number of observations and parameters by generating the…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-04 David Gunawan , Chris Carter , Robert Kohn

Pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings (pmMH) is a versatile algorithm for sampling from target distributions which are not easy to evaluate point-wise. However, pmMH requires good proposal distributions to sample efficiently from the target,…

Computation · Statistics 2018-07-30 Johan Dahlin , Adrian Wills , Brett Ninness

Bayesian filtering approximates the true underlying behavior of a time-varying system by inverting an explicit generative model to convert noisy measurements into state estimates. This process typically requires either storage, inversion,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-20 Gianluca M. Bencomo , Jake C. Snell , Thomas L. Griffiths

Bayesian inference in state-space models is challenging due to high-dimensional state trajectories. A viable approach is particle Markov chain Monte Carlo, combining MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo to form "exact approximations" to…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-27 Anna Wigren , Riccardo Sven Risuleo , Lawrence Murray , Fredrik Lindsten

The normalizing constant plays an important role in Bayesian computation, and there is a large literature on methods for computing or approximating normalizing constants that cannot be evaluated in closed form. When the normalizing constant…

Computation · Statistics 2020-09-02 Yuling Yao , Collin Cademartori , Aki Vehtari , Andrew Gelman

This paper considers multiple binary hypothesis tests with adaptive allocation of sensing resources from a shared budget over a small number of stages. A Bayesian formulation is provided for the multistage allocation problem of minimizing…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-11-05 Dennis Wei

It has been widely documented that the sampling and resampling steps in particle filters cannot be differentiated. The {\itshape reparameterisation trick} was introduced to allow the sampling step to be reformulated into a differentiable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-08-10 Conor Rosato , Vincent Beraud , Paul Horridge , Thomas B. Schön , Simon Maskell

Models with intractable likelihood functions arise in areas including network analysis and spatial statistics, especially those involving Gibbs random fields. Posterior parameter es timation in these settings is termed a doubly-intractable…

Computation · Statistics 2018-10-16 Lampros Bouranis , Nial Friel , Florian Maire

Bayesian model selection provides the cosmologist with an exacting tool to distinguish between competing models based purely on the data, via the Bayesian evidence. Previous methods to calculate this quantity either lacked general…

Astrophysics · Physics 2008-11-26 J. R. Shaw , M. Bridges , M. P. Hobson

A standard approach to approximate inference in state-space models isto apply a particle filter, e.g., the Condensation Algorithm.However, the performance of particle filters often varies significantlydue to their stochastic nature.We…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Dirk Ormoneit , Christiane Lemieux , David J. Fleet

A new approach to inference in state space models is proposed, based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). ABC avoids evaluation of the likelihood function by matching observed summary statistics with statistics computed from data…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-10-01 Gael M. Martin , Brendan P. M. McCabe , Worapree Maneesoonthorn , Christian P. Robert

Sampling-based planning is the predominant paradigm for motion planning in robotics. Most sampling-based planners use a global random sampling scheme to guarantee probabilistic completeness. However, most schemes are often inefficient as…

Robotics · Computer Science 2020-01-22 Tin Lai , Philippe Morere , Fabio Ramos , Gilad Francis

Pseudo-marginal Metropolis-Hastings (pmMH) is a powerful method for Bayesian inference in models where the posterior distribution is analytical intractable or computationally costly to evaluate directly. It operates by introducing…

Computation · Statistics 2016-08-06 Johan Dahlin , Fredrik Lindsten , Joel Kronander , Thomas B. Schön

A key challenge when designing particle filters in high-dimensional state spaces is the construction of a proposal distribution that is close to the posterior distribution. Recent advances in particle flow filters provide a promising avenue…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-06-30 Yunpeng Li , Mark Coates

Traditional methods for unsupervised learning of finite mixture models require to evaluate the likelihood of all components of the mixture. This becomes computationally prohibitive when the number of components is large, as it is, for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-12 Milan Papež , Tomáš Pevný , Václav Šmídl

We propose a novel blocked version of the continuous-time bouncy particle sampler of [Bouchard-C\^ot\'e et al., 2018] which is applicable to any differentiable probability density. This alternative implementation is motivated by blocked…

Computation · Statistics 2021-07-12 Jacob Vorstrup Goldman , Sumeetpal Sidhu Singh

The computational costs of inference and planning have confined Bayesian model-based reinforcement learning to one of two dismal fates: powerful Bayes-adaptive planning but only for simplistic models, or powerful, Bayesian non-parametric…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-02-11 Arthur Guez , David Silver , Peter Dayan