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Random forests have become an established tool for classification and regression, in particular in high-dimensional settings and in the presence of complex predictor-response relationships. For bounded outcome variables restricted to the…
Accurate spatiotemporal modeling of conditions leading to moderate and large wildfires provides better understanding of mechanisms driving fire-prone ecosystems and improves risk management. We here develop a joint model for the occurrence…
Fire effects are widely used in various computer graphics applications such as visual effects and video games. Modeling the shape and appearance of fire phenomenon is challenging as the underlying effects are driven by complex laws of…
Depending on the rule for tree growth, the forest-fire model shows either self-organized criticality with rule-dependent exponents, or synchronization, or an intermediate behavior. This is shown analytically for the one-dimensional system,…
As changing climates transform the landscape of wildfire management and suppression, agencies are faced with difficult resource allocation decisions. We analyze trade-offs in temporal resource allocation using a simple but robust Markov…
In tropical regions, fires propagate readily in grasslands but typically consume only edges of forest patches. Thus forest patches grow due to tree propagation and shrink by fires in surrounding grasslands. The interplay between these…
The last decade has seen the success of stochastic parameterizations in short-term, medium-range and seasonal forecasts: operational weather centers now routinely use stochastic parameterization schemes to better represent model inadequacy…
Wildfires are natural disasters capable of damaging economies and communities. When wildfires become uncontrollable, Incident Manager Teams (IMT's) dispatch response vehicles to key assets to undertake protective tasks and so mitigate the…
We propose a model based on coupled multiplicative stochastic processes to understand the dynamics of competing species in an ecosystem. This process can be conveniently described by a Fokker-Planck equation. We provide an analytical…
Recent innovations in diffusion probabilistic models have paved the way for significant progress in image, text and audio generation, leading to their applications in generative time series forecasting. However, leveraging such abilities to…
Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…
We consider object detection using a generic model for natural shapes. A common approach for object recognition involves matching object models directly to images. Another approach involves building intermediate representations via a…
We propose a stochastic model for evolution through mutation and natural selection of a population that evolves on a $\bbT_d^+$ tree. We think of this model as a way of describing the evolution fitness landscape of a population. We obtain…
Wildfire spread is strongly influenced by the transport and ignition of embers. While long-range spotting driven by plume lofting has received significant attention, embers transported near the surface by turbulent winds can also influence…
Forest-savanna bistability - the hypothesis that forests and savannas exist as alternative stable states in the tropics - and its implications are key challenges for mathematical modelers and ecologists in the context of ongoing climate…
Fire patterns, consisting of fire effects that offer insights into fire behavior and origin, are traditionally classified based on investigators' visual observations, leading to subjective interpretations. This study proposes a framework…
Across plant communities worldwide, fire regimes reflect a combination of climatic factors and plant characteristics. To shed new light on the complex relationships between plant characteristics and fire regimes, we developed a new…
Wildfires pose a significant natural disaster risk to populations and contribute to accelerated climate change. As wildfires are also affected by climate change, extreme wildfires are becoming increasingly frequent. Although they occur less…
A parameter estimation problem for a class of semilinear stochastic evolution equations is considered. Conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality are given in terms of growth and continuity properties of the nonlinear part.…
Risk management in many environmental settings requires an understanding of the mechanisms that drive extreme events. Useful metrics for quantifying such risk are extreme quantiles of response variables conditioned on predictor variables…