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We address a parametric joint detection-estimation problem for discrete signals of the form $x(t) = \sum_{n=1}^{N} \alpha_n e^{-i \lambda_n t } + \epsilon_t$, $t \in \mathbb{N}$, with an additive noise represented by independent centered…

Classical Analysis and ODEs · Mathematics 2018-08-14 Illya M. Karabash , Jürgen Prestin

We study the one-dimensional branching random walk in the case when the step size distribution has a stretched exponential tail, and, in particular, no finite exponential moments. The tail of the step size $X$ decays as $\mathbb{P}[X \geq…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-04-12 Piotr Dyszewski , Nina Gantert , Thomas Höfelsauer

Empirical distributions have their in-sample maxima as natural censoring. We look at the "hidden tail", that is, the part of the distribution in excess of the maximum for a sample size of $n$. Using extreme value theory, we examine the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2020-04-14 Nassim Nicholas Taleb

For an m-dimensional multivariate extreme value distribution there exist 2^{m}-1 exponent measures which are linked and completely characterise the dependence of the distribution and all of its lower dimensional margins. In this paper we…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-11-01 Ioannis Papastathopoulos , Jonathan A. Tawn

We suggest a simple Gaussian mixture model for data generation that complies with Feldman's long tail theory (2020). We demonstrate that a linear classifier cannot decrease the generalization error below a certain level in the proposed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-26 Arman Bolatov , Maxat Tezekbayev , Igor Melnykov , Artur Pak , Vassilina Nikoulina , Zhenisbek Assylbekov

We analyze the \textit{Large Deviation Probability (LDP)} of linear factor models generated from non-identically distributed components with \textit{regularly-varying} tails, a large subclass of heavy tailed distributions. An efficient…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-12-10 Farzad Pourbabaee , Omid Shams Solari

We derive subexponential tail asymptotics for the distribution of the maximum of a compound renewal process with linear component and of a L\'evy process, both with negative drift, over random time horizon $\tau$ that does not depend on the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-10-07 Sergey Foss , Dmitry Korshunov , Zbigniew Palmowski

Large deviations for sums of i.i.d.\ random variables with stretched-exponential tails (also called Weibull or semi-exponential tails) have been well understood since the 60's, going back to Nagaev's seminal work. Many extensions in the…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-02-04 Nina Gantert , Joscha Prochno , Philipp Tuchel

We consider strictly stationary heavy tailed time series whose finite-dimensional exponent measures are concentrated on axes, and hence their extremal properties cannot be tackled using classical multivariate regular variation that is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-10-10 Rafal Kulik , Philippe Soulier

We obtain first decay rates of probabilities of tails of multivariate polynomials built on independent random variables with heavy tails. Then we derive stable limit theorems for nonconventional sums of the form $\sum_{Nt\geq n\geq…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-09-08 Yuri Kifer , S. R. S. Varadhan

Using an intrinsic approach, we study some properties of random fields which appear as tail fields of regularly varying stationary random fields. The index set is allowed to be a general locally compact Hausdorff Abelian group $\mathbb{G}$.…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-01-11 Günter Last

In this article two methods to distinguish between polynomial and exponential tails are introduced. The methods are mainly based on the properties of the residual coefficient of variation for the exponential and non-exponential…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-12-21 Joan del Castillo , Jalila Daoudi , Richard Lockhart

We find the exponential exact two-terms non-asymptotic expression for the maximum and minimum distribution of a non-Gaussian, in general case, random vector.

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-09 M. R. Formica , E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

We propose an iterative estimating equations procedure for analysis of longitudinal data. We show that, under very mild conditions, the probability that the procedure converges at an exponential rate tends to one as the sample size…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-12-18 Jiming Jiang , Yihui Luan , You-Gan Wang

In this paper, we derive higher-order expansions of $L$-statistics of independent risks $X_1, \ldots, X_n$ under conditions on the underlying distribution function $F$. The new results are applied to derive the asymptotic expansions of…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-10-08 E. Hashorva , C. Ling , Z. Peng

The main approach to inference for multivariate extremes consists in approximating the joint upper tail of the observations by a parametric family arising in the limit for extreme events. The latter may be expressed in terms of…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-17 Raphaël Huser , Anthony C. Davison , Marc G. Genton

Chebyshev's inequality provides an upper bound on the tail probability of a random variable based on its mean and variance. While tight, the inequality has been criticized for only being attained by pathological distributions that abuse the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-10-16 Ernst Roos , Ruud Brekelmans , Wouter van Eekelen , Dick den Hertog , Johan van Leeuwaarden

This article is devoted to the study of tail index estimation based on i.i.d. multivariate observations, drawn from a standard heavy-tailed distribution, i.e. of which 1-d Pareto-like marginals share the same tail index. A multivariate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-04-10 Stéphan Clémençon , Antoine Dematteo

We derive in this short report the exponential as well as power decreasing tail estimations for the sums of centered exchangeable random variables, alike ones for the sums of the centered independent ones.

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-02 M. R. Formica , E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

The paper develops new methods of non-parametric estimation a compound Poisson distribution. Such a problem arise, in particular, in the inference of a Levy process recorded at equidistant time intervals. Our key estimator is based on…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-19 Alexey Lindo , Sergei Zuyev , Serik Sagitov