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Let $X$ be the number of $k$-term arithmetic progressions contained in the $p$-biased random subset of the first $N$ positive integers. We give asymptotically sharp estimates on the logarithmic upper-tail probability $\log \Pr(X \ge E[X] +…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-09-16 Matan Harel , Frank Mousset , Wojciech Samotij

Linear regression with the classical normality assumption for the error distribution may lead to an undesirable posterior inference of regression coefficients due to the potential outliers. This paper considers the finite mixture of two…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-12 Yasuyuki Hamura , Kaoru Irie , Shonosuke Sugasawa

We give a formula for the tail of the distribution of the non-commutative Rademacher series, which generalizes the result that is already available in the commutative case. As a result, we are able to calculate the norm of these series in…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2008-02-03 Stephen J. Montgomery-Smith

If the Euclidean norm is strongly concentrated with respect to a measure, the average distribution of an average marginal of this measure has Gaussian asymptotics that captures tail behaviour. If the marginals of the measure have…

Metric Geometry · Mathematics 2007-08-28 Sasha Sodin

We provide exact large-time equivalents of the density and upper tail distributions of the exponential functional of a subordinator in terms of its Laplace exponents. This improves previous results on the logarithmic asymptotic behaviour of…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-06-17 Bénédicte Haas

The present paper considers modified extension of the exponential distribution with three parameters. We study the main properties of this new distribution, with special emphasis on its median, mode and moments function and some…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2015-10-28 M. A. El-Damcese , Dina. A. Ramadan

We establish the large deviation probabilities for the height of random recursive trees, revealing polynomial upper-tail decay and stretched-exponential lower-tail decay. Remarkably, the lower tail features an atypical prefactor that grows…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-04-23 Xinxin Chen , Heng Ma

Identifying groups of variables that may be large simultaneously amounts to finding out which joint tail dependence coefficients of a multivariate distribution are positive. The asymptotic distribution of a vector of nonparametric,…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-28 Maël Chiapino , Anne Sabourin , Johan Segers

It is shown that the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator of a univariate log-concave probability density satisfies desirable consistency properties in the tail regions. Specifically, let $P$ and $f$ denote the true underlying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-02-02 Didier B. Ryter , Lutz Duembgen

In this paper non-asymptotic exponential and moment estimates are derived for tail of distribution for discrete time martingale and martingale transform by means of martingale differences in the terms of moments and tails of distributions…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-06-22 E. Ostrovsky , L. Sirota

In R\'enyi's representation for exponential order statistics, we replace the iid exponential sequence with any iid sequence, and call the resulting order statistic generalized R\'enyi statistic. We prove that by randomly reordering the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-02-24 Péter Kevei , László Viharos

Asymptotic expansions are derived for the tail distribution of the product of two correlated normal random variables with non-zero means and arbitrary variances, and more generally the sum of independent copies of such random variables.…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-27 Robert E. Gaunt , Zixin Ye

Heavy tailed distributions present a tough setting for inference. They are also common in industrial applications, particularly with Internet transaction datasets, and machine learners often analyze such data without considering the biases…

Applications · Statistics 2016-10-14 Matt Taddy , Hedibert Freitas Lopes , Matt Gardner

The use of expectiles in risk management has recently gathered remarkable momentum due to their excellent axiomatic and probabilistic properties. In particular, the class of elicitable law-invariant coherent risk measures only consists of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-03-21 Abdelaati Daouia , Simone A. Padoan , Gilles Stupfler

We investigate the tail behaviour of the steady state distribution of a stochastic recursion that generalises Lindley's recursion. This recursion arises in queuing systems with dependent interarrival and service times, and includes…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-04-23 Maria Vlasiou , Zbigniew Palmowski

We consider a model for multivariate data with heavy-tailed marginal distributions and a Gaussian dependence structure. The different marginals in the model are allowed to have non-identical tail behavior in contrast to most popular…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-23 Bikramjit Das

Here an extended form of the reaction rate probability integral, in the case of nonresonant thermonuclear reactions with the depleted tail and the right tail cut off, is considered. The reaction rate integral then can be looked upon as the…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2015-05-18 D. P. Joseph , H. J. Haubold

The probability and structure of co-occurrences of extreme values in multivariate data may critically depend on auxiliary information provided by covariates. In this contribution, we develop a flexible generalized additive modeling…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-02-06 Linda Mhalla , Thomas Opitz , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

Consider a random sample in the max-domain of attraction of a multivariate extreme value distribution such that the dependence structure of the attractor belongs to a parametric model. A new estimator for the unknown parameter is defined as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-10-05 John H. J. Einmahl , Andrea Krajina , Johan Segers

We consider a fixed-point equation for a non-negative integer-valued random variable, that appears in branching processes with state-independent immigration. A similar equation appears in the analysis of a single-server queue with a…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-12-04 Sergey Foss , Masakiyo Miyazawa