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This paper is concerned with forecasting probability density functions. Density functions are nonnegative and have a constrained integral; thus, they do not constitute a vector space. Implementing unconstrained functional time-series…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-14 Frédéric Ferraty , Han Lin Shang

Envelope methodology is succinctly pitched as a class of procedures for increasing efficiency in multivariate analyses without altering traditional objectives \citep[first sentence of page 1]{cook2018introduction}. This description is true…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-05 Daniel J. Eck

This paper provides a new methodology to analyze unobserved heterogeneity when observed characteristics are modeled nonlinearly. The proposed model builds on varying random coefficients (VRC) that are determined by nonlinear functions of…

Econometrics · Economics 2020-08-05 Christoph Breunig

This paper introduces the kernel mixture network, a new method for nonparametric estimation of conditional probability densities using neural networks. We model arbitrarily complex conditional densities as linear combinations of a family of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-05-22 Luca Ambrogioni , Umut Güçlü , Marcel A. J. van Gerven , Eric Maris

We consider a nonparametric heteroscedastic time series regression model and suggest testing procedures to detect changes in the conditional variance function. The tests are based on a sequential marked empirical process and thus combine…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-10 Maria Mohr , Natalie Neumeyer

In the context of estimating local modes of a conditional density based on kernel density estimators, we show that existing bandwidth selection methods developed for kernel density estimation are unsuitable for mode estimation. We propose…

Computation · Statistics 2017-11-02 Haiming Zhou , Xianzheng Huang

In the context of regressing a response $Y$ on a predictor $X$, we consider estimating the local modes of the distribution of $Y$ given $X=x$ when $X$ is prone to measurement error. We propose two nonparametric estimation methods, with one…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-28 Haiming Zhou , Xianzheng Huang

We propose localized spectral estimators for the quadratic covariation and the spot covolatility of diffusion processes which are observed discretely with additive observation noise. The eligibility of this approach to lead to an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-19 Markus Bibinger , Markus Reiß

In this paper we study the problem of pointwise density estimation from observations with multiplicative measurement errors. We elucidate the main feature of this problem: the influence of the estimation point on the estimation accuracy. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-07-13 Denis Belomestny , Alexander Goldenshluger

We develop a nonparametric test for deciding whether volatility of an asset follows a standard semimartingale process, with paths of finite quadratic variation, or a rough process with paths of infinite quadratic variation. The test…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2024-07-16 Carsten H. Chong , Viktor Todorov

In this article, we propose a new nonparametric data analysis tool, which we call nonparametric modal regression, to investigate the relationship among interested variables based on estimating the mode of the conditional density of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-02-23 Weixin Yao , Sijia Xiang

We consider a circular deconvolution problem, in which the density $f$ of a circular random variable $X$ must be estimated nonparametrically based on an i.i.d. sample from a noisy observation $Y$ of $X$. The additive measurement error is…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-12-11 Jan Johannes , Maik Schwarz

The local volatility model is a widely used for pricing and hedging financial derivatives. While its main appeal is its capability of reproducing any given surface of observed option prices---it provides a perfect fit---the essential…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2019-01-24 Martin Tegnér , Stephen Roberts

We propose a novel approach for density estimation with exponential families for the case when the true density may not fall within the chosen family. Our approach augments the sufficient statistics with features designed to accumulate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-09-07 Lin Yuan , Sergey Kirshner , Robert Givan

Over the last decade, nonparametric methods have gained increasing attention for modeling complex data structures due to their flexibility and minimal structural assumptions. In this paper, we study a general multivariate nonparametric…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-18 Kunal Rai , Archi Roy , Itai Dattner , Soudeep Deb

This work is focussed on the inversion task of inferring the distribution over parameters of interest leading to multiple sets of observations. The potential to solve such distributional inversion problems is driven by increasing…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-06 Arnaud Vadeboncoeur , Mark Girolami , Andrew M. Stuart

Nonparametric kernel density and local polynomial regression estimators are very popular in Statistics, Economics, and many other disciplines. They are routinely employed in applied work, either as part of the main empirical analysis or as…

Computation · Statistics 2020-07-21 Sebastian Calonico , Matias D. Cattaneo , Max H. Farrell

Nonparametric density estimation is considered for a discretely observed stationary continuous-time process. For each of three given time sampling procedures either random or deterministic, we establish that histograms and frequency…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-01-19 François-Xavier Lejeune

Let $X$ and $Y$ be two independent identically distributed random variables with density $p(x)$ and $Z=\alpha X+\beta Y$ for some constants $\alpha>0$ and $\beta>0$. We consider the problem of estimating $p(x)$ by means of the samples from…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Denis Belomestny

We consider the problem of estimating stochastic volatility for a class of second-order parabolic stochastic PDEs. Assuming that the solution is observed at a high temporal frequency, we use limit theorems for multipower variations and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-06-02 Carsten Chong