Related papers: Une \'etude de physique sur les \'elections
We demonstrate that machine learning enables the capability to infer an individual's propensity to vote from their past actions and attributes. This is useful for microtargeting voter outreach, voter education and get-out-the-vote (GOVT)…
Social networks are getting closer to our real physical world. People share the exact location and time of their check-ins and are influenced by their friends. Modeling the spatio-temporal behavior of users in social networks is of great…
Competition between varying ideas, people and institutions fuels the dynamics of socio-economic systems. Numerous analyses of the empirical data extracted from different financial markets have established a consistent set of stylized facts…
Modal shift in public transport as a consequence of a disruption on a line has in some cases unforeseen consequences such as an increase in congestion in the rest of the network. How information is provided to users and their behavior plays…
In this paper, I review the main trends in voting in national elections in Russia since 1991, discuss the evidence of manipulation or falsification by the authorities, and use statistical techniques to examine the determinants of voting…
We consider a two-round election model involving $m$ voters and $n$ candidates. Each voter is endowed with a strict preference list ranking the candidates. In the first round, the candidates are partitioned into two subsets, $A$ and $B$,…
Much research in electoral control -- one of the most studied form of electoral attacks, in which an entity running an election alters the structure of that election to yield a preferred outcome -- has focused on giving decision complexity…
In the months leading up to political elections in the United States, forecasts are widespread and take on multiple forms, including projections of what party will win the popular vote, state ratings, and predictions of vote margins at the…
Many democratic countries use district-based elections where there is a "seat" for each district in the governing body. In each district, the party whose candidate gets the maximum number of votes wins the corresponding seat. The result of…
We model voting behaviour in the multi-group setting of a two-tier voting system using sequences of de Finetti measures. Our model is defined by using the de Finetti representation of a probability measure (i.e. as a mixture of…
Since the first paper on polling systems, written by Mack in 1957, a huge number of papers on this topic has been written. A typical polling system consists of a number of queues, attended by a single server. In several surveys, the most…
We analyse the structure and behaviour of a specific voting network using a dynamic structure-based methodology which draws on Q-Analysis and social network theory. Our empirical focus is on the Eurovision Song Contest over a period of 20…
A method for studying exact properties of a class of {\it inhomogeneous} stochastic many-body systems is developed and presented in the framework of a voter model perturbed by the presence of a ``zealot'', an individual allowed to favour an…
In this paper, we discuss the possible generalizations of the Social Influence with Recurrent Mobility (SIRM) model developed in Phys. Rev. Lett. 112, 158701 (2014). Although the SIRM model worked approximately satisfying when US election…
Human dynamics and sociophysics suggest statistical models that may explain and provide us with better insight into social phenomena. Here we propose a generative model based on a stochastic differential equation that allows us to analyse…
We study a model of temporal voting where there is a fixed time horizon, and at each round the voters report their preferences over the available candidates and a single candidate is selected. Prior work has adapted popular notions of…
A proposal for a calculational program in fluid turbulence is presented. It is proposed that the fluid probability density functional has an attractor for its time-evolution, just as the dynamical system itself has. The evolution of the…
This study introduces a statistical mechanics framework to analyze the territorial distribution of the Resident Foreign Population across Italian municipalities. The observed percentages of foreign residents are treated as the reference…
Uncertainty persists over how and why some countries become democratic and others do not, or why some countries remain democratic and others 'backslide' toward autocracy. Furthermore, while scholars generally agree on the nature of…
A calculational approach in fluid turbulence is presented. Use is made of the attracting nature of the fluid-dynamic dynamical system. An approximate approach is offerred that effectively propagates the statistics in time. Loss of…