Related papers: Systemic Risk in the International System
Socio-economic networks, from cities and firms to collaborative projects, often appear resilient for long periods before experiencing rapid, cascading decline as participation erodes. We explain such dynamics through a framework of…
Evaluation of systemic risk in networks of financial institutions in general requires information of inter-institution financial exposures. In the framework of Debt Rank algorithm, we introduce an approximate method of systemic risk…
In this brief, we study epidemic spreading dynamics taking place in complex networks. We specifically investigate the effect of synergy, where multiple interactions between nodes result in a combined effect larger than the simple sum of…
We study a model in which two players with opposing interests try to alter a status quo through instability-generating actions. We show that instability can be used to secure longer-term durable changes, even if it is costly to generate and…
In this paper, a new reliability model has been developed for a single system degrading stochastically which experiences soft and hard failure. Soft failure occurs when the physical deterioration level of the system is greater than a…
Critical infrastructure is not indestructible. Threats, both emergent and systemic, have propagated beyond historical norms that risk mitigation efforts alone cannot alleviate. Interdependencies between infrastructural systems compound…
Many critical infrastructure systems have network structure and are under stress. Despite their national importance, the complexity of large-scale transport networks means we do not fully understand their vulnerabilities to cascade…
Many complex networks are known to exhibit sudden transitions between alternative steady states with contrasting properties. Such a sudden transition demonstrates a network's resilience, which is the ability of a system to persist in the…
In a world of ever-increasing systems interdependence, effective cybersecurity policy design seems to be one of the most critically understudied elements of our national security strategy. Enterprise cyber technologies are often implemented…
Analysis of wars and conflicts between regions has been an important topic of interest throughout the history of humankind. In the latter part of the 20th century, in the aftermath of two World Wars and the shadow of nuclear, biological,…
This work explores the characteristics of financial contagion in networks whose links distributions approaches a power law, using a model that defines banks balance sheets from information of network connectivity. By varying the parameters…
This paper applies a recently developed power allocation game in Li and Morse (2017) to study the countries' survival problem in networked international environments. In the game, countries strategically allocate their power to support the…
Since the latest financial crisis, the idea of systemic risk has received considerable interest. In particular, contagion effects arising from cross-holdings between interconnected financial firms have been studied extensively. Drawing…
As it is known in the finance risk and macroeconomics literature, risk-sharing in large portfolios may increase the probability of creation of default clusters and of systemic risk. We review recent developments on mathematical and…
We study the influence of repulsive interactions on an ensemble of coupled excitable rotators. We find that a moderate fraction of repulsive interactions can trigger global firing of the ensemble. The regime of global firing, however, is…
Political power in the international context can be characterized as a fluid-like substance that circulates through a network of nation states. States can possess it as a stock quantity, reflected by their material capacity or national…
The basic laws of physics are simple, so why is the world complex? The theory of self-organized criticality posits that complex behavior in nature emerges from the dynamics of extended, dissipative systems that evolve through a sequence of…
As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes increasingly embedded in the core functions of social, political, and economic life, it catalyzes structural transformations with far-reaching societal implications. This paper advances the concept of…
Following several episodes of financial market turmoil in recent decades, changes in systemic risk have drawn growing attention. Therefore, we propose surveillance schemes for systemic risk, which allow to detect misspecified systemic risk…
Societal complexity may be at a historical peak. Distinct from entropy, complexity tends to rise as systems move away from order, crest at an intermediate state, and decline as entropy continues increasing. The use of a thermodynamic…