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Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) is a general computational approach to Bayesian inference for general state space models. Our article scales up PMCMC in terms of the number of observations and parameters by generating the…
The embedding problem of Markov transition matrices into continuous-time Markov semigroups is a classic problem that regained a lot of impetus and activities in recent years. We consider it here for the following generalisation of the…
An introduction to the use of linchpin variables in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is provided. Before the widespread adoption of MCMC methods, conditional sampling using linchpin variables was essentially the only practical approach for…
In this work, we present a general method to establish properties of multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains representing stochastic reaction networks. This method consists of grouping states together (via a partition of the state…
We revisit the classical problem of approximating a stochastic differential equation by a discrete-time and discrete-space Markov chain. Our construction iterates Caratheodory's theorem over time to match the moments of the increments…
One of the most widely used samplers in practice is the component-wise Metropolis-Hastings (CMH) sampler that updates in turn the components of a vector valued Markov chain using accept-reject moves generated from a proposal distribution.…
Monte Carlo algorithms simulate some prescribed number of samples, taking some random real time to complete the computations necessary. This work considers the converse: to impose a real-time budget on the computation, which results in the…
This paper revisits the classical notion of sampling in the setting of real-time temporal logics for the modeling and analysis of systems. The relationship between the satisfiability of Metric Temporal Logic (MTL) formulas over…
We consider the task of MCMC sampling from a distribution defined on a discrete space. Building on recent insights provided in [Zan19], we devise a class of efficient continuous-time, non-reversible algorithms which make active use of the…
A time-dependent finite-state Markov chain that uses doubly stochastic transition matrices, is considered. Entropic quantities that describe the randomness of the probability vectors, and also the randomness of the discrete paths, are…
Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have become a cornerstone of many modern scientific analyses by providing a straightforward approach to numerically estimate uncertainties in the parameters of a model using a sequence of random…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are ubiquitous tools for simulation-based inference in many fields but designing and identifying good MCMC samplers is still an open question. This paper introduces a novel MCMC algorithm, namely,…
We consider the problem of approximating the stationary distribution of an ergodic Markov chain given a set of sampled transitions. Classical simulation-based approaches assume access to the underlying process so that trajectories of…
We propose a method to approximate continuous-time, continuous-state stochastic processes by a discrete-time Markov chain defined on a nonuniform grid. Our method provides exact moment matching for processes whose first and second moments…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods asymptotically sample from complex probability distributions. The pseudo-marginal MCMC framework only requires an unbiased estimator of the unnormalized probability distribution function to construct…
Continuous-time Markov chains describing interacting processes exhibit a state space that grows exponentially in the number of processes. This state-space explosion renders the computation or storage of the time-marginal distribution, which…
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have existed for a long time and the field is well-explored. The purpose of MCMC methods is to approximate a distribution through repeated sampling; most MCMC algorithms exhibit asymptotically optimal…
Under a markovian evolutionary process, the expected number of substitutions per site (also called branch length) that have occurred when a sequence has evolved from another according to a transition matrix $P$ can be approximated by…
We prove finite sample complexities for sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms which require only local mixing times of the associated Markov kernels. Our bounds are particularly useful when the target distribution is multimodal and global…
Filtering---estimating the state of a partially observable Markov process from a sequence of observations---is one of the most widely studied problems in control theory, AI, and computational statistics. Exact computation of the posterior…