Related papers: Catastrophic Phase Transitions and Early Warnings …
Standard epidemic models exhibit one continuous, second order phase transition to macroscopic outbreaks. However, interventions to control outbreaks may fundamentally alter epidemic dynamics. Here we reveal how such interventions modify the…
Two replicas of spatially extended chaotic systems synchronize to a common spatio-temporal chaotic state when coupled above a critical strength. As a prototype of each single spatio-temporal chaotic system a lattice of maps interacting via…
Spatial diffusion of particles in periodic potential models has provided a good framework for studying the role of chaos in global properties of classical systems. Here a bidimensional "soft" billiard, classically modeled from an optical…
The phase ordering dynamics of coupled chaotic bistable maps on lattices with defects is investigated. The statistical properties of the system are characterized by means of the average normalized size of spatial domains of equivalent spin…
The phase transition of a fluid adsorbed in a heterogeneous system is studied with two simple lattice gas models within the framework of a mean-field theory. Despite the different origin of the heterogeneity (spatial variation of binding…
A broad range of natural and social systems from human microbiome to financial markets can go through critical transitions, where the system suddenly collapses to another stable configuration. Critical transitions can be unexpected, with…
In the wake of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, there has been heightened interest from applied mathematicians in infectious disease modelling. Modelling efforts often focus on predicting whether diseases are likely to be eliminated or, instead,…
We investigate the effects of cooperativity between contagion processes that spread and persist in a host population. We propose and analyze a dynamical model in which individuals that are affected by one transmissible agent $A$ exhibit a…
The process of desertification is usually modeled as a first order transition, where a change of an external parameter (e.g. precipitation) leads to a catastrophic bifurcation followed by an ecological regime shift. However, vegetation…
A landfill represents a complex and dynamically evolving structure that can be stochastically perturbed by exogenous factors. Both thermodynamic (equilibrium) and time varying (non-steady state) properties of a landfill are affected by…
We propose a simple framework to understand commonly observed crisis waves in macroeconomic Agent Based models, that is also relevant to a variety of other physical or biological situations where synchronization occurs. We compute exactly…
A spacially extended model of the collective behavior of a large number of locally acting organisms is proposed in which organisms move probabilistically between local cells in space, but with weights dependent on local morphogenetic…
Many real world systems are at risk of undergoing critical transitions, leading to sudden qualitative and sometimes irreversible regime shifts. The development of early warning signals is recognized as a major challenge. Recent progress…
During overflow metabolism, cells excrete glycolytic byproducts when growing under aerobic conditions in a seemingly wasteful fashion. While potentially advantageous for microbes with finite oxidative capacity, its role in higher organisms…
This article proposes a fundamental methodological shift in the modelling of policy interventions for sustainability transitions in order to account for complexity (e.g. self-reinforcing mechanism arising from multi-agent interactions) and…
In a physical system, changing parameters such as temperature can induce a phase transition: an abrupt change from one state of matter to another. Analogous phenomena have recently been observed in large language models. Typically, the task…
Nonequilibrium phase transitions between an active and an absorbing state are found in models of populations, epidemics, autocatalysis, and chemical reactions on a surface. While absorbing-state phase transitions fall generically in the DP…
The ETAS model is widely employed to model the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes, generally using spatially invariant parameters. We propose an efficient method for the estimation of spatially varying parameters, using the…
We examine the effect of spatial bias on a nonequilibrium system in which masses on a lattice evolve through the elementary moves of diffusion, coagulation and fragmentation. When there is no preferred directionality in the motion of the…
When particles/molecules diffuse in systems that contain obstacles, the steady-state regime (during which the mean-square displacement scales linearly with time, $\left< r^2 \right> \sim t$) is preceded by a transient regime. It is common…