Related papers: Markov Chain Order Estimation and Relative Entropy
We study a class of dynamical systems generated by random substitutions, which contains both intrinsically ergodic systems and instances with several measures of maximal entropy. In this class, we show that the measures of maximal entropy…
We prove deviation bounds for the random variable $\sum_{i=1}^{n} f_i(Y_i)$ in which $\{Y_i\}_{i=1}^{\infty}$ is a Markov chain with stationary distribution and state space $[N]$, and $f_i: [N] \rightarrow [-a_i, a_i]$. Our bound improves…
In this paper a new estimator for the transition density $\pi$ of an homogeneous Markov chain is considered. We introduce an original contrast derived from regression framework and we use a model selection method to estimate $\pi$ under…
The relative entropy and chi-squared divergence are fundamental divergence measures in information theory and statistics. This paper is focused on a study of integral relations between the two divergences, the implications of these…
We describe a simple method of umbrella trajectory sampling for Markov chains. The method allows the estimation of large-deviation rate functions, for path-extensive dynamic observables, for an arbitrary number of models within a certain…
We extend previously proposed measures of complexity, emergence, and self-organization to continuous distributions using differential entropy. This allows us to calculate the complexity of phenomena for which distributions are known. We…
We prove that under mild positivity assumptions the entropy rate of a hidden Markov chain varies analytically as a function of the underlying Markov chain parameters. A general principle to determine the domain of analyticity is stated. An…
Formalising the confrontation of opinions (models) to observations (data) is the task of Inferential Statistics. Information Theory provides us with a basic functional, the relative entropy (or Kullback-Leibler divergence), an asymmetrical…
Adaptive importance sampling is a powerful tool to sample from complicated target densities, but its success depends sensitively on the initial proposal density. An algorithm is presented to automatically perform the initialization using…
We propose a compression-based version of the empirical entropy of a finite string over a finite alphabet. Whereas previously one considers the naked entropy of (possibly higher order) Markov processes, we consider the sum of the…
Understanding the effects of the choice of the tree on the joint distribution of a tree-structured Markov random field (MRF) is crucial for fully exploiting the intelligibility of such probabilistic graphical models. Tools must be developed…
In this paper we consider the convergence of the conditional entropy to the entropy rate for Markov chains. Convergence of certain statistics of long range dependent processes, such as the sample mean, is slow. It has been shown in Carpio…
The goal of this paper is to develop an estimate for the entropy of random long-range correlated symbolic sequences with elements belonging to a finite alphabet. As a plausible model, we use the high-order additive stationary ergodic Markov…
Relative entropy is a fundamental class of distances between probability distributions, with widespread applications in probability theory, statistics, and machine learning. In this work, we study relative entropy from a categorical…
Loosely speaking, the Shannon entropy rate is used to gauge a stochastic process' intrinsic randomness; the statistical complexity gives the cost of predicting the process. We calculate, for the first time, the entropy rate and statistical…
We analyse the structure of imprecise Markov chains and study their convergence by means of accessibility relations. We first identify the sets of states, so-called minimal permanent classes, that are the minimal sets capable of containing…
In this paper, we develop a general theory for the estimation of the transition probabilities of reversible Markov chains using the maximum entropy principle. A broad range of physical models can be studied within this approach. We use…
Predictability of behavior has emerged an an important characteristic in many fields including biology, medicine, and marketing. Behavior can be recorded as a sequence of actions performed by an individual over a given time period. This…
We describe estimators $\chi_n(X_0,X_1,...,X_n)$, which when applied to an unknown stationary process taking values from a countable alphabet ${\cal X}$, converge almost surely to $k$ in case the process is a $k$-th order Markov chain and…
Estimating entropy production from real observation data can be difficult due to finite resolution in both space and time and finite measurement statistics. We characterize the statistical error introduced by finite sample size and compare…