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This paper expands on stochastic volatility models by proposing a data-driven method to select the macroeconomic events most likely to impact volatility. The paper identifies and quantifies the effects of macroeconomic events across…
Time series often contain outliers and level shifts or structural changes. These unexpected events are of the utmost importance in fraud detection, as they may pinpoint suspicious transactions. The presence of such unusual events can easily…
This paper uses the concepts of entropy to study the regularity/irregularity of the returns from the Indian Foreign exchange (forex) markets. The Approximate Entropy and Sample Entropy statistics which measure the level of repeatability in…
Recent CNN and Transformer-based models tried to utilize frequency and periodicity information for long-term time series forecasting. However, most existing work is based on Fourier transform, which cannot capture fine-grained and local…
This study considers the multivariate segmentation procedure under the assumption of the multivariate Gaussian mixture. Jensen-Shannon divergence between two multivariate Gaussian distributions is employed as a discriminator and a recursive…
We study the tick dynamical behavior of the yen-dollar exchange rate using the rescaled range analysis in financial market. It is found that the multifractal Hurst exponents with the short and long-run memory effects can be obtained from…
We analyze the multifractal spectra of daily foreign exchange rates for Japan, Hong-Kong, Korea, and Thailand with respect to the United States Dollar from 1991 to 2005. We find that the return time series show multifractal spectrum…
The goal of developing a firmer theoretical understanding of inhomogenous temporal processes -- in particular, the waiting times in some collective dynamical system -- is attracting significant interest among physicists. Quantifying the…
Realization of uncertainty of prices is captured by volatility, that is the tendency of prices to vary along a period of time. This is generally measured as standard deviation of daily returns. In this paper we propose and investigate the…
We propose a Genetic Programming architecture for the generation of foreign exchange trading strategies. The system's principal features are the evolution of free-form strategies which do not rely on any prior models and the utilization of…
Every change of trend in the forex market presents a great opportunity as well as a risk for investors. Accurate forecasting of forex prices is a crucial element in any effective hedging or speculation strategy. However, the complex nature…
Digital currencies have become popular in the last decade due to their non-dependency and decentralized nature. The price of these currencies has seen a lot of fluctuations at times, which has increased the need for prediction. As their…
An Entropic Dynamics of exchange rates is laid down to model the dynamics of foreign exchange rates, FX, and European Options on FX. The main objective is to represent an alternative framework to model dynamics. Entropic inference is an…
This paper proposes an exchange rate forecasting method by using the grey relative combination approach of chaos wavelet SVM-Markov model. The problem of short-term forecast of exchange rate by using the comprehensive method of the phase…
Time-varying volatility is an inherent feature of most economic time-series, which causes standard correlation estimators to be inconsistent. The quadrant correlation estimator is consistent but very inefficient. We propose a novel…
An algorithm is presented to update the multi-fractal spectrum of a time series in constant time when new data arrives. The discrete wavelet transform (DWT) of the time series is first updated for the new data value. This is done optimally…
Using data from a sample of 28 representatives countries, we propose a classification of currency crises consequences based on the ultrametric analysis of the real exchange rate movements time series, without any further assumption. By…
We introduce an event based framework of directional changes and overshoots to map continuous financial data into the so-called Intrinsic Network - a state based discretisation of intrinsically dissected time series. Defining a method for…
This paper discusses the dynamics of intraday prices of twelve cryptocurrencies during last months' boom and bust. The importance of this study lies on the extended coverage of the cryptoworld, accounting for more than 90\% of the total…
Analogies between the price dynamics in the foreign exchange market and 3-dimensional fully developed turbulence were recently presented in Nature vol. 381, 767-769 (1996). Independently, we have carried out a study comparing the parallel…