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This paper proposes a Sequential Monte Carlo approach for the Bayesian estimation of mixed causal and noncausal models. Unlike previous Bayesian estimation methods developed for these models, Sequential Monte Carlo offers extensive…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-01-08 Gianluca Cubadda , Francesco Giancaterini , Stefano Grassi

The possibility to simulate the properties of many-body open quantum systems with a large number of degrees of freedom is the premise to the solution of several outstanding problems in quantum science and quantum information. The challenge…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2019-07-03 Alexandra Nagy , Vincenzo Savona

Many machine learning problems involve Monte Carlo gradient estimators. As a prominent example, we focus on Monte Carlo variational inference (MCVI) in this paper. The performance of MCVI crucially depends on the variance of its stochastic…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-07-05 Alexander Buchholz , Florian Wenzel , Stephan Mandt

We demonstrate the use of a variational method to determine a quantitative lower bound on the rate of convergence of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms as a function of the target density and proposal density. The bound relies on…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2013-05-29 Fergal P. Casey , Joshua J. Waterfall , Ryan N. Gutenkunst , Christopher R. Myers , James P. Sethna

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is an efficient Bayesian sampling method that can make distant proposals in the parameter space by simulating a Hamiltonian dynamical system. Despite its popularity in machine learning and data science, HMC is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-09-02 Ziming Liu , Zheng Zhang

An introduction to the basics of Monte Carlo is given. The topics covered include, sample space, events, probabilities, random variables, mean, variance, covariance, characteristic function, chebyshev inequality, law of large numbers,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 K. P. N. Murthy

Modern quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods often capture electron correlation through both explicitly correlating Jastrow factors and small to mid-sized configuration interaction (CI) expansions. Here, we study the additional optimization…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2023-02-08 Scott M. Garner , Eric Neuscamman

In recent years efficient algorithms have been developed for the numerical computation of relativistic single-particle path integrals in quantum field theory. Here, we adapt this "worldline Monte Carlo" approach to the standard problem of…

Monte Carlo integration is a commonly used technique to compute intractable integrals and is typically thought to perform poorly for very high-dimensional integrals. To show that this is not always the case, we examine Monte Carlo…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-05-26 Yanbo Tang

It is common to model random errors in a classical measurement by the normal (Gaussian) distribution, because of the central limit theorem. In the quantum theory, the analogous hypothesis is that the matrix elements of the error in an…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2009-11-10 S. G. Rajeev

We present a general approach to greatly increase at little cost the efficiency of Monte Carlo algorithms. To each observable to be computed we associate a renormalized observable (improved estimator) having the same average but a different…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 Roland Assaraf , Michel Caffarel

Monte Carlo simulations are an essential tool in particle physics data analysis. Events are typically generated alongside weights that redistribute the cross section of the simulated process across the phase space. These weights can be…

High Energy Physics - Phenomenology · Physics 2026-05-13 Benjamin Nachman , Dennis Noll

Overlap between two neural quantum states can be computed through Monte Carlo sampling by evaluating the unnormalized probability amplitudes on a subset of basis configurations. Due to the presence of probability amplitude ratios in the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-11-28 Tomasz Szołdra

For basic machine learning problems, expected error is used to evaluate model performance. Since the distribution of data is usually unknown, we can make simple hypothesis that the data are sampled independently and identically distributed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-12-01 Xuli Shen , Qing Xu , Xiangyang Xue

Quasi-Monte Carlo (QMC) methods are being adopted in statistical applications due to the increasingly challenging nature of numerical integrals that are now routinely encountered. For integrands with $d$-dimensions and derivatives of order…

Computation · Statistics 2016-04-04 Chris. J. Oates , Mark Girolami

Reinforcement learning constantly deals with hard integrals, for example when computing expectations in policy evaluation and policy iteration. These integrals are rarely analytically solvable and typically estimated with the Monte Carlo…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-23 Sebastien M. R. Arnold , Pierre L'Ecuyer , Liyu Chen , Yi-fan Chen , Fei Sha

Atomic forces are calculated for first-row monohydrides and carbon monoxide within electronic quantum Monte Carlo (QMC). Accurate and efficient forces are achieved by using an improved method for moving variational parameters in variational…

Chemical Physics · Physics 2009-11-10 Myung Won Lee , Massimo Mella , Andrew M. Rappe

The mean of a random variable can be understood as a linear functional on the space of probability distributions. Quantum computing is known to provide a quadratic speedup over classical Monte Carlo methods for mean estimation. In this…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-10-24 Jose Blanchet , Yassine Hamoudi , Mario Szegedy , Guanyang Wang

Control variates are a well-established tool to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimators. However, for large-scale problems including high-dimensional and large-sample settings, their advantages can be outweighed by a substantial…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-07-22 Shijing Si , Chris. J. Oates , Andrew B. Duncan , Lawrence Carin , François-Xavier Briol

Multimodal distributions of some physics based model parameters are often encountered in engineering due to different situations such as a change in some environmental conditions, and the presence of some types of damage and nonlinearity.…

Computation · Statistics 2022-10-19 Felipe Igea , Alice Cicirello
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