Related papers: Excel Modelling - Transparency, Auditing and Busin…
In this paper we present an efficient approach to implementing model checking in the Higher Order Logic (HOL) of Isabelle. This is a non-trivial task since model checking is restricted to finite state sets. By restricting our scope to…
Evaluating the financial performance of manufacturing firms requires consideration of both the time value of money and the relative importance of multiple decision criteria. Conventional approaches relying solely on deterministic…
A demonstration in MS Excel to show how users can connect their spreadsheet models to the external environment that the model represents. We employ indexes to generate a list of relevant evidence that is hyperlinked to the context in which…
Safety cases become increasingly important for software certification. Models play a crucial role in building and combining information for the safety case. This position paper sketches an ideal model-based safety case with defect…
The forecasting of the credit default risk has been an important research field for several decades. Traditionally, logistic regression has been widely recognized as a solution due to its accuracy and interpretability. As a recent trend,…
Behavioral healthcare risk assessment remains a challenging problem due to the highly multimodal nature of patient data and the temporal dynamics of mood and affective disorders. While large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong…
Statistical models for networks with complex dependencies pose particular challenges for model selection and evaluation. In particular, many well-established statistical tools for selecting between models assume conditional independence of…
Managing risk at the aggregate level is crucial for banks and financial institutions as required by the Basel III framework. In this paper, we introduce discrete time Bayesian state space models with Poisson measurements to model aggregate…
One of the ways for organizations to continuously get better at executing projects is to learn from their past experience. In large organizations, the different accounts and business units often work in silos and tapping the rich knowledge…
As language models are increasingly deployed as autonomous agents in high-stakes settings, ensuring that they reliably follow user-defined rules has become a critical safety concern. To this end, we study whether language models exhibit…
Economic evaluations from individual-level data are an important component of the process of technology appraisal, with a view to informing resource allocation decisions. A critical problem in these analyses is that both effectiveness and…
This paper explores the pressing issue of risk assessment in Large Language Models (LLMs) as they become increasingly prevalent in various applications. Focusing on how reward models, which are designed to fine-tune pretrained LLMs to align…
We propose a stochastic model allowing property and casualty insurers with multiple business lines to measure their liabilities for incurred claims risk and calculate associated capital requirements. Our model includes many desirable…
Large language models (LLMs) have emerged as powerful tools in the field of finance, particularly for risk management across different asset classes. In this work, we introduce a Cross-Asset Risk Management framework that utilizes LLMs to…
Regulation and risk management in banks depend on underlying risk measures. In general this is the only purpose that is seen for risk measures. In this paper we suggest that the reporting of risk measures can be used to determine the loss…
Economists often estimate economic models on data and use the point estimates as a stand-in for the truth when studying the model's implications for optimal decision-making. This practice ignores model ambiguity, exposes the decision…
Bayesian clinical trials can benefit of available historical information through the elicitation of informative prior distributions. Concerns are however often raised about the potential for prior-data conflict and the impact of Bayes test…
The issue of model risk in default modeling has been known since inception of the Academic literature in the field. However, a rigorous treatment requires a description of all the possible models, and a measure of the distance between a…
Valuation of Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) has become an important field as its calculation is required in Basel III, issued in 2010, in the wake of the credit crisis. Exposure, which is defined as the potential future loss of a default…
The thesis discusses topics related to the development of business process management systems. Business process management systems have evolved on the basis of workflow management systems through incremental inclusion of standard…