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The accounts of medical trials provide very detailed information about the patients' health conditions. In contrast, only minimal data are usually given about demographic factors. Yet, some of these factors can have a notable impact on the…

Applications · Statistics 2015-06-16 Bertrand M. Roehner

We finely describe the "coming down from infinity" for birth and death processes which eventually become extinct. Our biological motivation is to study the decrease of regulated populations which are initially large. Under general…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-29 Vincent Bansaye , Sylvie Méléard , Mathieu Richard

Seasonal influenza presents an ongoing challenge to public health. The rapid evolution of the flu virus necessitates annual vaccination campaigns, but the decision to get vaccinated or not in a given year is largely voluntary, at least in…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-01-21 Irena Papst , Kevin P. O'Keeffe , Steven H. Strogatz

The 1918 influenza pandemic was characterized by multiple epidemic waves. We investigated into reactive social distancing, a form of behavioral responses, and its effect on the multiple influenza waves in the United Kingdom. Two forms of…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-07-19 Duo Yu , Qianying Lin , Alice PY Chiu , Daihai He

A recent study in the 2017 Living to 100 Monograph published by the Society of Actuaries suggests, in contrast to previous research, that the risk of death after 110 increases with age. By fitting a Gompertz model to estimated central death…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-12-06 Francisco Villavicencio , José Manuel Aburto

In the light of increasing clues on social media impact on self-harm and suicide risks, there is still no evidence on who are and how factually engaged in suicide-related online behaviors. This study reports new findings of high-performance…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-01-17 Anastasia Peshkovskaya , Yu-Tao Xiang

The Farr-Bertillon law states that the mortality rate of single and widowed persons is about three times the rate of married people of same age. This excess mortality can be measured with good accuracy for all ages except for young…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-06-28 Peter Richmond , Bertrand M. Roehner

The risks of Unintentional Suffocation injuries in the U.S. must be reconsidered in view of the existent mortality and morbidity statistics. In particular, fatal injuries due to the Sudden Unexpected Infant Death Syndrome [SUIDS] should be…

Applications · Statistics 2019-10-02 Frédéric Chabolle , Paul Deheuvels

The threat of avian influenza and the 2004-2005 influenza vaccine supply shortage in the United States has sparked a debate about optimal vaccination strategies to reduce the burden of morbidity and mortality caused by the influenza virus.…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2010-02-10 Shweta Bansal , Babak Pourbohloul , Lauren Ancel Meyers

Background: Globally, influenza is a major cause of morbidity, hospitalization and mortality. Influenza vaccination has shown substantial protective effectiveness in the United States. We investigated state-level patterns of coverage rates…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-03-14 Alice P. Y. Chiu , Duo Yu , Jonathan Dushoff , Daihai He

Inspired by Minority Games, we constructed a novel individual-level game of adaptive decision-making based on the dilemma of deciding whether to participate in voluntary influenza vaccination programs. The proportion of the population…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2007-05-23 Raffaele Vardavas , Romulus Breban , Sally Blower

Knowledge of the severity of an influenza outbreak is crucial for informing and monitoring appropriate public health responses, both during and after an epidemic. However, case-fatality, case-intensive care admission and…

The influence of per capita income on life expectancy is well documented, mostly through studies of multinational samples. However, one expects fairly weak correlations at both ends of the life span, that is to say in early infancy and in…

Physics and Society · Physics 2021-09-22 Peter Richmond , Wonguk Cho , Beom Jun Kim , Bertrand M. Roehner

Accurate mortality modeling is central to actuarial science and public health, especially as mental health emerges as a significant factor in population outcomes. This paper develops and applies a Bayesian hierarchical model to analyze U.S.…

Gompertz's law tells us that for humans above the age of 35 the death rate increases exponentially with a doubling time of about 10 years. Here, we show that the same law continues to hold even for ages over 100. Beyond 106 there is so far…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-02-17 Peter Richmond , Bertrand M. Roehner

Changes in human behavior are increasingly recognized as a major determinant of epidemic dynamics. Although collective activity can be modified through imposed measures to control epidemic progression, spontaneous changes can also arise as…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2021-05-25 Susanna Manrubia , Damián H. Zanette

Panic may spread over a crowd in a similar fashion as contagious diseases do in social groups. People no exposed to a panic source may express fear, alerting others of imminent danger. This social mechanism initiates an evacuation process,…

Physics and Society · Physics 2018-05-18 F. E. Cornes , G. A. Frank , C. O. Dorso

The outbreak of an infectious disease in a human population can lead to individuals responding with preventive measures in an attempt to avoid getting infected. This leads to changes in contact patterns. However, as we show in this paper,…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2018-05-15 Ka Yin Leung , Frank Ball , David Sirl , Tom Britton

Quarantine measures are one of the first lines of defense against the spread of infectious diseases. However, maintaining these measures over extended periods can be challenging due to a phenomenon known as quarantine fatigue. In this…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2023-12-25 L. D. Valdez

The stochastic system approach to causality is applied to situations where the risk of death is not negligible. This approach grounds causality on physical laws, distinguishes system and observation and represents the system by multivariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-07 Daniel Commenges